Wang Haijun, Liu Yiming, Zhang Bin, Xu Shan, Jia Kejing, Hong Song. Analysis of driving forces of urban land expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area based on Logistic-GTWR model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2018, 34(19): 248-257. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.19.032
    Citation: Wang Haijun, Liu Yiming, Zhang Bin, Xu Shan, Jia Kejing, Hong Song. Analysis of driving forces of urban land expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area based on Logistic-GTWR model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2018, 34(19): 248-257. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.19.032

    Analysis of driving forces of urban land expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area based on Logistic-GTWR model

    • Abstract: Under the background that the country pushes forward the new-type urbanization, spatial planning and urban agglomeration planning, it is of great significance to scientifically cognize the driving forces mechanism of urban land expansion for the urban agglomeration, which is important for the sustainable development of urban agglomeration land use and planning. Taking the Wuhan metropolitan area as an example, the paper uses the land use data, socio-economic factors, neighborhood factors and natural factors in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 to construct the Logistic-GTWR (Logistic - geographically and temporally weighted regression) model, which couples the spatial heterogeneity and temporal non-stationarity. The model is used to explore the driving forces and its spatio-temporal differentiation pattern of urban land expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area. The results highlight that: 1) The Logistic-GTWR model with coupling spatial heterogeneity and temporal non-stationarity has a better performance than the global logistic regression model and the Logistic-GWR (Logistic-Geographically Weighted Regression) model which only considers the spatial heterogeneity, verifying the applicability of Logistic-GTWR model in driving force analysis of urban land expansion. 2) There are significant disparities on the spatio-temporal patterns for various driving forces of urban expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area. For example, the distribution area of high values for population factor shrank, spread and then stabilized around Wuhan, finally forming a circular distribution pattern around the central part of Wuhan metropolitan area as time went by. The distribution area of high value for per capita GDP (gross domestic product) firstly transferred to the west, then gradually balanced, and finally concentrated around Wuhan, Macheng and Chongyang. The effect of polarization plays a dominant role in the process of urbanization in Wuhan, and its influence range is constantly expanding. The effect of rent seeking is apparent. 3) Population and economy are the core driving forces of urban expansion in Wuhan metropolitan area in 20 years and the influence of the 2 factors has been increasing year by year. The influence of the national highways, highways and provincial roads has been slightly increased. 4) The central and eastern cities are mostly such cities where population and economic factors are the core driving forces. The influence of elevation is gradually prominent in the development of Wuhan on account of a rapid development and decreasing land source. The cities in the west are mainly restricted by elevation and driven by traffic, where the differences between the east and the west are obvious. However, the intensities of the population and economy in western cities have gradually increased since 1995. The effects of population and economy on western cities have been an uptrend since 1995. Similarly, the intensity of population has been gradually increasing in Xianning and Huanggang. In Wuhan, Xiaogan, Xiantao, Tianmen and Qianjiang, economic factor has an increasing trend over year. This research provides a model that couples the spatial heterogeneity and temporal non-stationarity, depicting more detailed spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of driving factors, which is beneficial to the meticulous?management of land resource.
    • loading

    Catalog

      /

      DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
      Return
      Return