Li Zhonghe, Zhan Chesheng, Hu Shi, Ning Like, Wu Lanfang, Guo Hai. Yield effects of irrigated acreage change under climate change in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2021, 37(19): 94-104. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.19.011
    Citation: Li Zhonghe, Zhan Chesheng, Hu Shi, Ning Like, Wu Lanfang, Guo Hai. Yield effects of irrigated acreage change under climate change in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2021, 37(19): 94-104. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.19.011

    Yield effects of irrigated acreage change under climate change in China

    • Irrigation of crops can effectively increase yields and reduce inter-annual fluctuations in yields, thus mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on food production. However, there are significant differences in climate among different regions of China, and water and soil resources are not balanced among regions of China. The degree to which increasing irrigation in different regions can alleviate the impact of climate change is unknown. Therefore, in this study, the yield datasets under different climate scenarios published by ISIMIP were used to study the yield increase effect of irrigation expansion in different regions of China. Firstly, the irrigation water consumption of three crop models (GEPIC, PEFIC and LPJml) driven by four climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CAM5-LR, MIROC5) was evaluated using the actual irrigation water consumption in different regions of China from 2006 to 2019. Secondly, the first five model combinations with better simulation results were selected according to the skill scores S1 and S2. Then, the ensemble mean of the first five combinations with better performance was carried out to analyze the yield changes of maize, rice, soybean and wheat in China from 2021 to 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. Finally, the yield increase effect of irrigated area expansion under the assumption on the irrigation of rain-fed land in different areas was evaluated. The results showed that the increase of precipitation from 2021 to 2050 would increase the yield of rice and soybean, corn and wheat in northern China, among which about 80% of maize area in Northeast China and 70% of maize area in Northwest China would have the increasing of the maize yield by 0.2 - 0.8 t/hm2. About 85% of rice area and soybean area in Northeast and Northwest regions would have the increasing of the yield by 1.0 t/hm2 and 0.5 t/hm2, respectively. About 90% of wheat area in Northeast and 75% of wheat area in Northwest regions had the increasing of the by 1.0-2.0 t/hm2 and 0.5-1.0 t/hm2, respectively. The decrease of precipitation resulted in the decrease of maize and wheat yields by 0.2 t/hm2 in the 45% area of south southwest of China. Under the condition of expanding the irrigated area, the crop yield in Northwest and Southwest China would increase greatly during 2021-2050. Under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios, maize (northwest: 43%-60%; southwest: 4%-40%) was the highest, followed by soybean (northwest: 40%-62%; southwest: 2%-17%) and wheat (northwest: 10%-18%; southwest: 22%-33%). Under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the total yield of rice (3%-13%) and soybean (7%-33%) in Northeast China increased significantly from 2021 to 2050. In terms of yield increase potential per unit irrigation amount, the expansion of irrigated area of wheat in Northeast China and North China during 2021 and 2050 had obvious yield increase benefit. Under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the wheat yield increase efficiency of irrigation was 0.21 kg/m3 and 0.12 kg/m3, respectively. The irrigation area expansion of maize (rice) in central region (east) had obvious yield increase benefit. The maize (rice) yield increase efficiency under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios was 0.1 and 0.09 kg/m3 (0.08 and 0.07 kg/m3), respectively. Therefore, the expansion of irrigated area for wheat in northern China can effectively cope with the adverse effects of climate change.
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