邱美娟, 刘布春, 刘园, 王珂依, 庞静漪, 张晓男, 贺金娜. 中国北方主产地苹果始花期模拟及晚霜冻风险评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(21): 154-163. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.21.019
    引用本文: 邱美娟, 刘布春, 刘园, 王珂依, 庞静漪, 张晓男, 贺金娜. 中国北方主产地苹果始花期模拟及晚霜冻风险评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(21): 154-163. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.21.019
    Qiu Meijuan, Liu Buchun, Liu Yuan, Wang Keyi, Pang Jingyi, Zhang Xiaonan, He Jinna. Simulation of first flowering date for apple and risk assessment of late frost in main producing areas of northern China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(21): 154-163. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.21.019
    Citation: Qiu Meijuan, Liu Buchun, Liu Yuan, Wang Keyi, Pang Jingyi, Zhang Xiaonan, He Jinna. Simulation of first flowering date for apple and risk assessment of late frost in main producing areas of northern China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(21): 154-163. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.21.019

    中国北方主产地苹果始花期模拟及晚霜冻风险评估

    Simulation of first flowering date for apple and risk assessment of late frost in main producing areas of northern China

    • 摘要: 建立中国北方苹果主产地苹果始花期模型,分析苹果花期晚霜冻气候风险,为有效防御晚霜冻灾害对当地苹果生产的影响提供科学指导。该研究选取中国新疆的伊宁、阿克苏、黄土高原的万荣、白水、礼泉、陕州区和渤海湾的福山、熊岳分别代表中国3大苹果产区,利用各区代表站的苹果始花期资料和同期气象数据,建立并检验了不同站点苹果始花期模型,并利用该模型模拟了1962-2019年苹果始花期,分析其时空变化特征。结合晚霜冻气象指标,对苹果花期晚霜冻气候风险进行评估。结果表明:1)苹果始花期模型能够在数据独立的情况下较准确地模拟各区代表站的始花期变化,新疆、黄土高原和渤海湾苹果产区内部检验的均方根误差分别为2.5~4.8、2.4~5.0、2.3~3.0 d,交叉检验的均方根误差分别为5.0~6.6、3.4~6.0和3.6~4.1 d。2)模拟得到的苹果始花期均呈显著提前趋势,趋势系数分别为-1.84~-1.04、-3.09~-2.62和-2.37~-1.88 d/10 a。3)不同区域苹果晚霜冻气候风险有着明显的差异。新疆和黄土高原果区苹果晚霜冻气候风险指数相对较大,其中伊宁最大达2.38,其次是万荣达1.81,而渤海湾果区的福山苹果晚霜冻气候风险指数为0。结果表明新疆和黄土高原果区苹果遭受晚霜冻的影响较大,渤海湾果区受晚霜冻影响最小。

       

      Abstract: An accurate model of apple was established to simulate the first flowering date in the main apple producing areas of northern China. Taking the Yining, Aksu, Wanrong, Baishui, Liquan, Shanzhou district, Fushan, and Xiongyue in Xinjiang, Loess Plateau, and Bohai Bay, as examples, a systematic investigation was made to evaluate the climate risk for the late frost of apple in flowering stage. The phenological and meteorological observation data was collected during the same period from the representative stations in each area. The parameters of thermal time model were revised to establish the first flowering date model of apple in different stations. Using internal and cross validation methods, the applicability of thermal time model was evaluated when simulating the first flowering date of apple. Then, the model was used to reconstruct the first flowering date of apple from 1962 to 2019, in order to explore the variation trend for the first flowering date of apple and the climate risk of late frost to apple flower in each fruit region. The frequencies and days were determined in various grades of late frost, as well as the climate risk, combined with the meteorological index of late frost and the last day of its occurrence. The results showed that: 1) The models for the first flowering date of apple in Xinjiang, Loess Plateau, and Bohai Bay were able to accurately simulate the changes of the first flowering date in the representative stations in each region. The data was independent, where the root mean standard errors (RMSE) of internal validation in each region were 2.5-4.8, 2.4-5.0, and 2.3-3.0 d, and the R2 values were 0.80-0.81, 0.66-0.89, and 0.74-0.90. In the cross validation, the values of RMSE were 5.0-6.6, 3.4-6.0, and 3.6-4.1 d, and the values of R2 were 0.41-0.73, 0.54-0.92, and 0.88, respectively. 2) From 1962-2019 (except that Fushan was from 1980 to 2019), the first flowering date of apple showed a significant trend of advance, where the trend coefficients was -1.84 - -1.04, -3.09 - -2.62, and -2.37 - -1.88 d/10 a, respectively. 3) The occurrence frequency and days of light frost were the highest, followed by the medium frost, while, those of heavy frost were lowest. There were relatively large climate risk indexes of apple late frost in the fruit region of Xinjiang and the Loess Plateau. Specifically, the maximum of 2.38 was in Yining, and the second value of 1.81 was in Wanrong, with its light and medium frost occurring once about every 2 and 4 years, respectively, while, the annual average numbers of days of late frost were 0.90 and 0.31 d, respectively. Followed by Baishui, the light and medium frost occurring once every 3 and 14 years, respectively, while the annual average numbers of days of late frost were 0.62 and 0.14 d, respectively. Nevertheless, the climate risk index of apple in the late frost was 0 at Fushan in Bohai Bay. The apples in the fruit area of Xinjiang and Loess Plateau were more affected by the late frost, whereas, that in the Bohai Bay was basically not affected by the late frost. The findings can provide a scientific guidance to effectively prevent the impact of late frost disaster on local apple production.

       

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