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张雅杰,闫小爽,张丰,肖展春.1978-2015年中国多尺度耕地压力时空差异分析[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(13):1-7.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.13.001
1978-2015年中国多尺度耕地压力时空差异分析
投稿时间:2018-01-26  修订日期:2018-05-08
中文关键词:  土地利用  粮食  模型  修正耕地压力指数  粮食安全  耕地压力重心  聚类分析
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目-面向城市扩展过程的动态空间格局指标与自组织空间结构分析模型(41571385);湖北省自然科学基金项目-绿地生态网络与城镇扩张空间协同耦合与优化模拟(2017CFC847)
作者单位
张雅杰 1. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院武汉 430000
 
闫小爽 1. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院武汉 430000
 
张丰 2. 武汉大学遥感信息工程学院武汉 430000
 
肖展春 1. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院武汉 430000
 
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中文摘要:为充分认识中国耕地压力的现状、变化趋势和空间分布差异,以保障中国的粮食安全,该文利用修正的耕地压力指数模型计算了中国31个省级行政区域1978-2015年的耕地压力指数,并在此基础上从国家、四大经济区域、省域3个尺度分析了耕地压力指数的时序变化和空间分布差异;该文借鉴力学原理,引入耕地压力重心的概念,通过计算耕地压力重心坐标,进一步揭示了耕地压力指数的空间变动情况。研究发现,中国耕地压力指数表现出明显的地域差异性,耕地压力重心随时间推移逐渐向东南方向移动,具体表现为东部地区耕地压力逐渐增加,西部地区耕地压力始终较高,而中部和东北地区耕地压力基本稳定在安全状态;通过对各省耕地压力指数进行系统聚类,可将中国31个省级行政区分为4种类型,分别为高压力型、中压力型、低压力型和无压力型。最后该文基于上述研究结果,对于不同耕地压力程度和类型的地区提出针对性的建议来缓解耕地压力,以更有效地保障各地区的粮食供给。
Zhang Yajie,Yan Xiaoshuang,Zhang Feng,Xiao Zhanchun.Analysis on temporal-spatial difference of cultivated land pressure at multiple scales in China from 1978 to 2015[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2018,34(13):1-7.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.13.001
Analysis on temporal-spatial difference of cultivated land pressure at multiple scales in China from 1978 to 2015
Author NameAffiliation
Zhang Yajie 1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430000, China
 
Yan Xiaoshuang 1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430000, China
 
Zhang Feng 2. School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430000, China
 
Xiao Zhanchun 1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430000, China
 
Key words:land use  grain  models  modified cultivated land pressure index  grain security  barycenter of cultivated land pressure  cluster analysis
Abstract:This paper aims to investigate the spatial distribution, temporal change and policy proposal of the cultivated land pressure in China. Considering the relationship between the quantity of cultivated land and population, the model of cultivated land pressure index put forward by Professor Cai Yunlong, can quantitatively measure the tension of cultivated land resources in a region. But the difference of cultivated land quality and utilization in different regions was not considered in this model. Therefore, this paper adopted the quality coefficient to expand the cultivated land pressure index, which can reflect both the quantity and quality of cultivated land. Moreover, most of the existing relating studies focused on shorter time series or smaller research fields, few studies have been conducted with long time series data like the years of 1978-2015 in this paper, and little research about spatial-temporal change of cultivated land pressure has been done at different scales across the whole China. So, this paper used the modified model to calculate the cultivated land pressure index at different levels i.e. the whole country, 4 major economic regions and 31 provincial administrative regions from 1978 to 2015. And based on the above-mentioned research data, by using the methods of comparative analysis, clustering analysis and barycenter analysis, this paper analyzed the temporal changes and spatial distribution differences of cultivated land pressure index at the 3 spatial scales and put forward some proposals for cultivated land protection. The study showed that: 1) The changing trend of the cultivated land pressure index in China can be approximately divided into 4 stages: fluctuant declining period from 1978 to 1984, relatively stable period from 1985 to 1997, rapidly rising period from 1998 to 2003 and rapidly declining period from 2004 to 2015. 2) The regional difference of cultivated land pressure is very obvious. In more detail, the cultivated land pressure in the eastern region of China increases gradually, and in the western region of China, the cultivated land pressure is always high, while it is basically stable at a safe state in the middle and northeastern regions of China. 3) The barycenter of cultivated land pressure in China gradually moves to the southeast over time. 4) Thirty-one provincial administrative regions can be divided into 4 types by using the hierarchical clustering method, namely high-pressure type, medium-pressure type, low-pressure type and non-pressure type. 5) Finally, aiming at different types or degrees of cultivated land pressure, suitable countermeasures should be taken to alleviate the cultivated land pressure effectively so as to guarantee the grain supply in all regions of China, such as purchasing the indicators of cultivated land compensation in other provinces or controlling the population inflow moderately for economically developed provinces of high pressure, carrying out land consolidation and rehabilitation actively or increasing agricultural investment for ecologically fragile provinces of high or medium pressure, improving farmland infrastructure or transporting grain to the food shortage areas or offering the indicators of cultivated land compensation to other provinces with insufficient cultivated land reserve resources for low-pressure or non-pressure provinces located in major grain producing areas, and so on.
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