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刘哲,曲艺伟,赵祖亮,李绍明,张晓东.玉米优良品种推广重心转移及扩散的时空规律[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(1):178-185.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.01.24
玉米优良品种推广重心转移及扩散的时空规律
投稿时间:2017-08-18  修订日期:2017-12-18
中文关键词:  作物  统计  模型  品种推广  时空特征  优良品种
基金项目:北京市重大项目课题(D171100002317002);京津冀作物新品种推广服务云平台建设应用
作者单位
刘哲 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院北京 100083 
曲艺伟 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院北京 100083 
赵祖亮 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院北京 100083 
李绍明 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院北京 100083 
张晓东 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院北京 100083 
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中文摘要:针对审定品种在推广阶段表现差异巨大、特征规律没有充分挖掘等问题。该文结合1982?2012年玉米新品种推广面积数据,选取种植面积曾达到666 67 hm2、推广时间大于5 a的品种,以推广时间、最大推广面积等为关键指标,从全国和省份空间尺度分类选取优良品种,发现2类优良品种:在全国推广面积大时间长、具有普遍适宜性的大品种;仅在有限省份推广面积大时间长、具有特殊适宜性的区域特色品种,分析了其推广重心转移及扩散规律。优良品种在不同空间尺度扩散方式一致,呈现2种扩散模式:1)大品种推广重心呈辐射邻近扩散;2)区域品种推广重心呈跳跃式扩散且跳跃距离较远,在1~2个省份出现空间聚集性。优良品种在不同空间尺度都具有扩散效应和重心变化,不同省份品种结构和更替无明显空间相关。该研究可为按省级建立品种推广方案提供参考。
Liu Zhe,Qu Yiwei,Zhao Zuliang,Li Shaoming,Zhang Xiaodong.Temporal and spatial law of promotion center moving and diffusion of excellent maize varieties[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2018,34(1):178-185.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2018.01.24
Temporal and spatial law of promotion center moving and diffusion of excellent maize varieties
Author NameAffiliation
Liu Zhe College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China 
Qu Yiwei College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China 
Zhao Zuliang College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China 
Li Shaoming College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China 
Zhang Xiaodong College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China 
Key words:crops  statistics  models  promote varieties  time-space characteristics  excellent varieties
Abstract: Finding the suitable planting environment for the maize variety plays a decisive role in crop varieties precision marketing. New varieties need to adapt to the promotion environment quickly and be supposed to behave well. However, the performance of crop variety during field production results from genotype effect, environment effect, and genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) effect. So far, the performance of varieties has showed great difference in the promotion stage. On the one hand, the excellent promoted varieties are not sufficient. The analysis methods of characteristics and attributions are still in the initial stage and the index definition varies differently. On the other hand, the laws of characteristics of the excellent maize variety performance have not been fully excavated. For most of the varieties, which have gone through the national regional test, variety certification and screening, the characteristics and rules have not been fully mined. Therefore, many approved varieties have not been accepted by the market in different spatial scales. In this paper, based on the data of the cultivated area of the varieties that have been approved and entered into the promotion period from 1982 to 2012, we fit and verify the applicability of Gaussian model in the province scale. Firstly, we provide a classification method, which helps to find out the excellent promoted varieties and explore the rule of promotion center transformation and diffusion from the different spatial scales. We select the maize varieties whose planting area has reached 6.67 million hectare or more and the promotion time is more than 5 years, and the life cycle curve of variety is fitted in both national and provincial scales. Secondly, we classify the varieties and choose the excellent varieties combined with spatial information, discovering the rules that the excellent maize varieties can be divided into 2 categories, which are big varieties, which should be promoted in most of the provinces with larger area and longer time across the country and reflect the universal suitability, and regional special varieties, which should be promoted in only limited provinces with larger area and longer time and reflect the special suitability. Last but not the least, the method can quickly find out excellent corn varieties and select the characteristics of the varieties that can be taken as key indicators for promotion. We have explored the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent varieties, as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, in order to summarize all kinds of suitable promotion models of varieties. According to the results, excellent varieties in the national and provincial scale conform to the Gaussian life cycle curve of varieties, which obviously has characteristics of space and time. Besides, the diffusion modes of the big varieties and regional special varieties are different. For the big varieties, the promotion center always transfers to the nearby provinces, which means it can radiate to the surrounding environment. For the regional special varieties, the promotion center always starts from several provinces but transfers to the distant one or two provinces, which means it has a leaping diffusion. The performance of excellent maize varieties in different provinces also behaves differently in the same ecological region. The structure and replacement of varieties are also not the same from provinces to provinces, which are relevant to the way of the province promotion and the acceptance of varieties. In conclusion, based on geographic information system (GIS), this article has preliminarily exploited the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent promoted maize varieties as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, which are from the Huang-Huai-Hai maize planting region and the Dong-Hua-Bei maize planting region. It suggests that excellent promoted varieties should be promoted at the regional scale, which is of great significance for guiding crop varieties suitability analysis and variety test design in the target maize planting region.
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