赵焕, 徐宗学, 赵捷. 基于CWSI及干旱稀遇程度的农业干旱指数构建及应用[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(9): 116-125. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.09.015
    引用本文: 赵焕, 徐宗学, 赵捷. 基于CWSI及干旱稀遇程度的农业干旱指数构建及应用[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(9): 116-125. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.09.015
    Zhao Huan, Xu Zongxue, Zhao Jie. Development and application of agricultural drought index based on CWSI and drought event rarity[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2017, 33(9): 116-125. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.09.015
    Citation: Zhao Huan, Xu Zongxue, Zhao Jie. Development and application of agricultural drought index based on CWSI and drought event rarity[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2017, 33(9): 116-125. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.09.015

    基于CWSI及干旱稀遇程度的农业干旱指数构建及应用

    Development and application of agricultural drought index based on CWSI and drought event rarity

    • 摘要: 土壤湿度降低会使作物生长受到水分胁迫,严重时发生农业干旱,对粮食安全造成不利影响,准确识别和有效监测农业干旱具有重要的现实意义。前人研究中,通常仅根据当前水分亏缺程度识别干旱事件,而不考虑其稀遇特征。该文基于蒸散发构建了综合考虑当前水分亏缺程度和干旱事件稀遇程度的农业干旱指数IEDI(integrated evapotranspiration deficit index),并基于该指数分析了中国东北3省2000-2014年农业干旱演变规律,探讨了气象要素对农业干旱以及农业干旱发生时段对粮食产量的影响。结果表明:1)与仅考虑水分亏缺程度的指标相比,综合考虑干旱稀遇程度的IEDI能更加有效地识别干旱年际差异,历史干旱事件、旱灾成灾面积和粮食产量验证了该指数的合理性;2)东北三省旱灾成灾面积与IEDI的相关系数均大于0.75,其中,吉林省最大,为0.88;粮食产量与IEDI的相关系数均大于0.60,其中,辽宁省最大,为0.78;3)吉林西部、辽宁西部易发生严重农业干旱,对气象干旱敏感程度高;4)当干旱发生的起始月份固定时,随干旱持续时间增加,干旱指数与产量的相关性先增强后减弱;当干旱持续时间固定时,干旱指数与产量的相关性与干旱发生的起始月份显著相关。总之,结合了干旱事件稀遇程度的指数可以有效识别农业干旱,为农业干旱监测提供了合理依据。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Agricultural drought caused by soil water deficit exerts great influence on ecosystems and growth of crops. Accurate monitoring and detection of spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural drought are meaningful for food security. However, agricultural drought is often characterized by current water demand-supply conditions, without considering the rarity of drought event in the historical period. In order to overcome the limitations of using crop water deficit indicator or dryness anomaly indicator only, an integrated evapotranspiration deficit index (IEDI) combining water deficit and dryness probability was proposed in this paper. To calculate the IEDI, crop water stress index (CWSI) ranging from 0 to 1 was calculated firstly based on actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration by remote sensing to reflect the actual level of crop water stress. Secondly, the drought event rarity index (RI) was derived on the basis of CWSI to reflect how often the current water stress occurred during the study period. The RI quantified the probability of the occurrence of an unusually dry event compared to normal state during the study period, and it was obtained by standardizing the cumulative density via the median of CWSI values. The calculation was based on the assumption that the statistical structure of CWSI follows Beta distribution and the median of CWSI time series represents normal water deficit state. In order to get an equal-interval value ranging from 0 to 1 quantifying how dry this crop water stress is compared to usual state, the RI was further derived using an empirical fitting method based on the standardized index. Finally, the proposed IEDI was derived, which was the square root of the product of CWSI and RI. On the basis of IEDI, temporal variations of agricultural drought in Northeast China, which is potentially threatened by climate extreme events, were analyzed. The impacts of meteorological factors on agricultural drought and the impacts of agricultural drought occurring period on grain yield were further investigated using the frequency analysis and the linear regression approach. Results showed that: 1) The proposed index was better for capturing the abnormal water stress state than the indicator based on current moisture deficit only, and the variations of peak value for IEDI showed high similarities to the RI. 2) High annual value of IEDI indicated severe drought condition. Thus, droughts in 2009 and 2014 in Liaoning Province, in 2007 and 2009 in Jilin Province, and in 2003, 2007 and 2009 in Heilongjiang Province were recognized as the most severe drought events during the study period, which were consistent with historical drought records. 3) IEDI was highly correlated with drought disaster area and grain yield in Northeast China. The correlation coefficients between drought disaster area and IEDI were all above 0.75, with the highest value of 0.88 in Jilin Province. The correlation coefficients between grain yield and IEDI were all above 0.60, with the highest value of 0.78 in Liaoning Province. 4) The correlation coefficients between grain yield and IEDI were higher than those between grain yield and CWSI in 4 major grain production cities: Liaoyuan, Siping, Songyuan and Changchun, manifesting a higher feasibility of IEDI to represent agricultural drought condition during study period. 5) Western Jilin and western Liaoning were the most sensitive regions to meteorological drought and were easily exposed to severe or extreme agricultural drought. 6) The correlation coefficients between IEDI and grain yield first increased and then decreased with the increase of drought duration when start month was fixed. And they were highly related to the start month when drought duration was fixed. Conclusively, the proposed index in this study is able to indicate agricultural drought effectively, which provides an effective way for agricultural drought monitoring.

       

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