刘胜利, 薛建福, 张冉, 陈中督, 陈阜, 胡赛晶, 张海林. 气候变化背景下湖南省双季稻生产的敏感性分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(6): 246-252. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.06.034
    引用本文: 刘胜利, 薛建福, 张冉, 陈中督, 陈阜, 胡赛晶, 张海林. 气候变化背景下湖南省双季稻生产的敏感性分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(6): 246-252. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.06.034
    Liu Shengli, Xue Jianfu, Zhang Ran, Chen Zhongdu, Chen Fu, Hu Saijing, Zhang Hailin. Sensitivity analysis of double-rice yield under climate change in Hunan Province[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(6): 246-252. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.06.034
    Citation: Liu Shengli, Xue Jianfu, Zhang Ran, Chen Zhongdu, Chen Fu, Hu Saijing, Zhang Hailin. Sensitivity analysis of double-rice yield under climate change in Hunan Province[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(6): 246-252. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.06.034

    气候变化背景下湖南省双季稻生产的敏感性分析

    Sensitivity analysis of double-rice yield under climate change in Hunan Province

    • 摘要: 湖南省是中国主要的双季稻种植省份之一,为探索历史气候变化背景下双季稻生产的气候敏感性,该研究以湖南省双季稻种植区域为对象,运用多元回归方法分析了湖南省历史气候变化动态(1980-2012)及其对双季稻生产的影响。结果表明:近30多年该区域气候变化以温度升高为主,早稻和晚稻全生育期内平均温度的气候倾向率分别为0.47和0.32℃/(10a),早稻全生育期内降水量和辐射呈增加趋势,晚稻全生育期内降水量和辐射有所下降。早稻产量变化与生育期内降水量和辐射的相关性极显著(P<0.01),晚稻产量变化与生育期内温度相关性显著(P<0.05)。温度升高是水稻产量变化的主要影响要素,但不同生育时期水稻产量的敏感性存在差异,早稻和晚稻产量对气候变化的敏感性范围在?4.38%~2.07%之间。历史气候变化对早稻和晚稻产量的影响分别可能达到2.59%和?6.02%。研究表明气候变化增加了该区域双季稻生产的敏感性,对水稻生产有较大的影响。该研究可以为针对区域特点进行农业技术措施调整,适应气候变化提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Global warming is a concern for policy makers, scientists and farmers around the world. It is widely accepted that climate change has had great impacts on agricultural production and farmers' income. Thus, there is a conundrum of how to balance the tradeoffs between food demand, increasing population, and scarce agricultural resources in the changing climate. Sensitivity and vulnerability of crop production to climate change are highly important for agriculture adaptation, but uncertainty still exists in previous research among diverse regions. Rice production may face huge risk because of the frequent extreme weather in China, therefore, a sensitivity analysis of rice production under the impacts of climatic change in different growth stages will contribute to optimizion of rice cultivation management for adapting to the changing conditions. In this study, we selected the recorded rice phonological observations at 10 agro-meteorological experiment stations, and the corresponding weather and statistical yields from 1980-2012 in Hunan Province, China. These data were used to analyze rice sensitivity to climate change using a panel model combined with multiple regression methods. The relationship of climate and yield trend was computed with the least square method, and the possible relationship between climatic factors and double-rice yield was analyzed by partial correlation analysis. The results showed that the double-rice region in Hunan Province experienced a warming trend over the last three decades, and the average temperature during the early rice and late rice seasons were 0.47 and 0.33 oC/(10a) higher. An increase in temperature of 0.76 oC/(10a) was observed during the vegetative stage of the early rice season, while the late rice season experienced a relatively slower increase in temperature. Precipitation and radiation during the growth stage of early rice tended to increase unnoticeable, but radiation in the vegetative stage and the reproductive stage of early rice changed with the trend -0.40 and 0.40 MJ/(m2·d·10a), while the trend was opposite for the late rice. Yield changes in the early rice were significantly correlated with precipitation and radiation during the ripening stage and the whole growth stage (P<0.01), but only the average temperature was significantly correlated to the yield for the late rice (P<0.05). Whatever the model adopted, the yield sensitivity of double-rice to climate change showed great differences among different growth stages, ranging from -280.11 to 118.20 kg/hm2. Temperature, precipitation and radiation in the vegetative stage were most sensitive to the yield for both the early rice and late rice. The rising temperature increased yield of the early rice, while we observed the opposite effect for the late rice. From 1980 to 2012, temperature increase, decrease of precipitation and radiation changed the early rice yield by -0.24% to 3.18%, and temperature increase during vegetative stage increased the early rice yield by 2.63%, and even accelerated the early rice yield by 157.10 kg/hm2. The late rice experienced a severe yield decrease by -4.98% with only temperature change in consideration. The historical climatic change impacted the yield of the early rice and late rice by 2.59% and -6.02%, respectively. These results suggest that the historical climate change during different rice growth stages has changed yields of double-rice in Hunan Province, especially if temperature rose during the growth stages. There is a strong need to assess historical climate change to project possible impacts in the future and identify adaptive technologies for double-rice production in this region.

       

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