首页 | 简介 | 作者 | 编者 | 读者 | Ei(光盘版)收录本刊数据 | 网络预印版 | 点击排行前100篇 | English
吴普特,赵西宁.气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(2):1-6.DOI:
气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响
投稿时间:2009-11-25  修订日期:2009-01-06
中文关键词:  气候变化,农业,水,粮食产量
基金项目:国家863计划项目(2006AA100217);国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAD88B10);国家自然科学基金项目(40701092)
作者单位
吴普特 西北农林科技大学 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 国家节水灌溉杨凌工程技术研究中心杨凌 712100 
赵西宁 西北农林科技大学 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 国家节水灌溉杨凌工程技术研究中心杨凌 712100 
摘要点击次数: 8166
全文下载次数: 3830
中文摘要:全球气候变暖作为一个不争的客观事实,不可避免地会对中国农业用水和粮食生产产生影响。该文分别采用Palmer干旱指数(PDSI)、单位灌溉面积用水量(GIQ)、单位面积粮食产量(PHGO)作为气候变化、农业用水和粮食生产具体度量指标,分析了中国1949-2005年PDSI、GIQ、PHGO年际变化特征及其相关关系,发现在1949-1983年PHGO和1949-1990年GIQ均与PDSI具有较好线性相关关系,表明气候变化在上述时间段对农业用水和粮食生产影响显著,人为因素(技术进步、政策机制、生产投入等)影响相对较小。依据相关关系对1949-2005年GIQ和PHGO进行预测发现,1991-2005年GIQ和1984-2005年PHGO预测值与实际值拟合程度较差,表明人为因素(技术进步、政策机制、生产投入等)在农业用水和粮食生产中已逐渐占据主导地位,对农业节水平均影响率达27%以上,对粮食增产平均影响率达40%以上。通过技术创新、政策机制保障和生产投入增加等人为因素控制,可在一定程度上缓解气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产带来的负面影响。
.Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2010,26(2):1-6.DOI:
Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China
Author NameAffiliation
  
  
Key words:climate change, agriculture, water, grain production
Abstract:Global climate warming is an indisputable objective fact, and it inevitably impacts agricultural water use and grain security production in China. In this paper, the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), the gross irrigation quota (GIQ) and the per-hectare grain output (PHGO) were used as specific indexes of climate change, agricultural water use and grain production to analyze inter-annual variation characteristics and correlation between PDSI, GIQ, PHGO in China from 1949 to 2005, and a good linear correlation between PHGO during 1949-1983 and PDSI as well as GIQ during 1949-1990 was found, which indicated that climate change significantly affected agricultural water use and grain production, while human factors (technological progress, policies mechanisms, production inputs, etc.) affected relatively small at above-mentioned stage. According to the correlation, the GIQ and PHGO during 1949-2005 were predicted. It was found that predicted values and actual ones of the GIQ during 1949-1990 and the PHGO during 1949-1983 had poor relationships, which indicated that human factors (technological progress, policies mechanisms, production inputs, etc.) gradually became the leading position, and their average impact rate on agricultural water-saving and grain yield reached over 27% and 40%, respectively. The negative impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production can be mitigated to some extent by controlling the human factors as technological innovation, policy mechanisms protection as well as production inputs increment.
查看全文   下载PDF阅读器

京ICP备06025802号-3

主办单位:中国农业工程学会 单位地址:北京朝阳区麦子店街41号

服务热线:010-59197076、59197077 传真: 邮编:100125 Email:tcsae@tcsae.org
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计

京公网安备 11010502031390号