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吴文斌,杨鹏,周清波,邹金秋,谈国新,柴崎亮介.2005~2035年全球农作物播种面积变化情景模拟研究[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(10):93-97.DOI:
2005~2035年全球农作物播种面积变化情景模拟研究
投稿时间:2006-09-20  修订日期:2007-03-12
中文关键词:  全球变化  作物播种面积  作物选择  Logit模型  模拟
基金项目:国家高技术发展计划(863计划)(2003AA131020)资助
作者单位
吴文斌 (1976-)湖北潜江市人助理研究员主要从事土地利用/土地覆盖变化、土地评价方面的研究。北京中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所100081。Email:wwbyn@yahoo.com 
杨鹏 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室北京 100081
东京大学气候研究中心日本千叶 277-8568 
周清波 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室北京 100081 
邹金秋 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室北京 100081 
谈国新 华中师范大学教育信息工程中心武汉 430079 
柴崎亮介 东京大学空间情报科学研究中心日本东京 153-8505 
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中文摘要:全球农作物播种面积变化对世界或区域的农业可持续发展、粮食安全与生态环境具有重要影响,研究分析全球作物播种面积动态变化具有重要意义。该研究借助离散选择理论,基于Logit模型建立了一个全球主要作物(水稻、玉米、小麦、大豆)播种面积变化模拟系统,对2005~2035年间全球4大作物播种面积的变化情景进行了模拟;从作物播种面积时序变化特征和空间变化特征方面对模拟结果进行了详细分析,并重点分析了亚洲区域不同作物播种面积的动态变化趋势。尽管模型还存在一些不确定性,但模拟结果在一定程度上仍然能为理解未来农业土地利用的复杂动态变化提供帮助,也可以为相关部门提供决策支持和信息服务。
Wu Wenbin,Yang Peng,Zhou Qingbo,Zou Jinqiu,Tan Guoxin,Shibasaki Ryosuke.Modeling sown area change for major crops during 2005~2035 at a global scale[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2007,23(10):93-97.DOI:
Modeling sown area change for major crops during 2005~2035 at a global scale
Author NameAffiliation
Wu Wenbin Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081
Center for Spatial Information Science, Univers 
Yang Peng Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081
Center for Climate System Research, University 
Zhou Qingbo Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081 
Zou Jinqiu Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081 
Tan Guoxin Engineering Research Center for Education Information Technology, HuaZhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China 
Shibasaki Ryosuke Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan 
Key words:global change  crop sown area  crop choice  Logit model  modeling
Abstract:Changes of sown area for crops at global-scale have important effects for the agricultural sustainable development, food safety and eco-environment. An integrated model to simulate future changes in sown area of the world's major crops(rice, maize, wheat and soybean) at a global-scale was established based on a Logit model. Model validation by using two comparative methods indicates its reliability and capability for long-term scenario simulations. Based on the simulation for the period 2005~2035, the temporal and spatial characteristics of sown area changes for four major crops were analyzed and a specific attention was given to Asia region for its great implications for global agricultural production and food security. This study is the first attempt of modeling future change in crop sown area at global-scale through a simplified approach along with some assumptions. Although some uncertainties remain in the model, the simulation results can help to understand and explain the causes, locations, consequences and trajectories of agricultural land-use change, and provide a great support service for land-use planning and policy-making activities.
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