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赵爱琴,魏秀菊,朱明.基于Meta-analysis的中国马铃薯地膜覆盖产量效应分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(24):1-7.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.24.001
基于Meta-analysis的中国马铃薯地膜覆盖产量效应分析
投稿时间:2015-07-15  修订日期:2015-10-10
中文关键词:  地膜  降雨  温度  马铃薯生产  Meta分析  增产效应  负面效应
基金项目:中国科协精品科技期刊工程项目:学科发展研究(2015KJQK002)
作者单位
赵爱琴 1.农业部规划设计研究院博士后科研工作站北京 100125 2.农业部规划设计研究院中国农业工程学会北京 100125 
魏秀菊 1.农业部规划设计研究院博士后科研工作站北京 100125 2.农业部规划设计研究院中国农业工程学会北京 100125 
朱明 1.农业部规划设计研究院博士后科研工作站北京 100125 2.农业部规划设计研究院中国农业工程学会北京 100125 
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中文摘要:为了定量综合分析中国近30 a地膜覆盖对马铃薯的增产效果,该研究综合已发表的田间试验研究数据,应用Meta-analysis方法定量分析使用地膜后马铃薯产量的增产率或减产率,并探讨其时空分异特征及其影响因素。通过文献检索,共获得84篇有关地膜覆盖马铃薯生产试验文献。经严格筛选,共从42篇文献中获得52组数据,分布于中国14个省(市、区),涵盖西北、西南和东南3个主要区域。主体数据经Meta分析表明:地膜覆盖在西北地区增产效应最显著,相对增产率为35.6%;其次是东南和西南地区,相对增产率分别为20%和12%;从全国时间序列看,1990年以后地膜相对增产率较高,但2010年后地膜增产效果有降低趋势;白色地膜与黑色地膜、垄作和平作对地膜增产效应影响不显著;在年均降水量<500 mm和年均温<10℃的区域地膜增产效应最明显,地膜相对增产率分别为40.5%和37.6%。进一步分析表明,2010年后地膜覆盖效果在年均降水量<500 mm且年均温<10℃的地区和年均降水量>500 mm且年均温>10 ℃的地区均呈现降低趋势,说明全球气候变暖可能对地膜增产产生负面影响,或随着使用年限增加地膜开始表现出对产量的负面效应。该研究可为地膜覆盖技术应用提供参考。
Zhao Aiqin,Wei Xiuju,Zhu Ming.Meta analysis on impact of plastic film on potato yield in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(24):1-7.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.24.001
Meta analysis on impact of plastic film on potato yield in China
Author NameAffiliation
Zhao Aiqin 1. Postdoctoral Scientific Research Stations of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China
2.Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China) 
Wei Xiuju 1. Postdoctoral Scientific Research Stations of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China
2.Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China) 
Zhu Ming 1. Postdoctoral Scientific Research Stations of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China
2.Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China) 
Key words:films  precipitation  temperature  potato production  Meta analysis  yield-increasing effect  negative effect
Abstract:Abstracts: Potato has been considered as the fourth largest food crops in China and it is important to enhance potato yield. As one of important techniques to improve potato yield, plastic film mulching has been widely applied but it is unclear about if and how the yield-increasing effect of plastic film is affected by different areas, colors of plastic film, planting methods, and main climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) in China. Therefore, we collected 30-year experimental data on potato yield under plastic film mulching from published papers in order to investigate the yield-increasing effect of potato in different areas, covered with black or white films, planted in flat field or on ridges, during the period from 1980 to 2014 by using Meta-analysis method. Meta-analysis method can quantatively synthesize the results from studies on a same subject and has been used for soil carbon emission but rarely been used in agricultural yield. Through database searching, a total of 84 papers were found on the subject of potato yield and plastic film mulching. The dataset was selected from the papers based on 4 criterions: 1) Experiments carried out in China; 2) Both treatments with and without plastic film mulching included; 3) Providing data of mean and standard error of yield for both treatments or at least 2 years of yield data; and 4) Clear basic information on location, year, film color, potato variety, et al. A total of 52 datasets were obtained from 42 papers. Then, the 52 groups of data were used for Meta-analysis and they were associated with 14 provinces in China distributed in northwest, southwest, and southeast. Results showed that: 1) The yield-increasing effects of plastic films were highest in the northwest with a mean relative yield-increasing rate of 35.6%, followed by the southeast and southwest with the mean yield-increasing rate of 20% and 12%, respectively; 2) The yield-increasing rate of potato was higher during the period from 1990 to 2010 than before, but getting lower in 2011-2014 with minus yield-increasing values reported, revealing an upward-to-downward trend during the past 30 years; 3) The yield-increasing effects of white films were slightly higher than black films in general; 4) The yield-increasing effects were not significantly different between the ridge and flat field planting methods; 5) The yield-increasing effects of plastic films were high under regions with mean annual precipitation smaller than 500 mm and mean annual temperature lower than 10 ℃ with relative yield-increasing rate of 40.5% and 37.6%, respectively. Moreover, an in-depth analysis of the upward-to-downward trend of yield-increasing effects under plastic film mulching during the past 30 years in China suggested that negative effects of plastic films on potato yield became obvious recently in 2011-2014. This study helps to understand status of plastic films application in potato production in China and provides data support for application of plastic films in different regions in China.
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