李霞, 张国壮, 陈永昊, 陈喆. 农牧交错带辽河流域2010-2019年植被覆盖变化及驱动因素分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(22): 63-72. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.22.007
    引用本文: 李霞, 张国壮, 陈永昊, 陈喆. 农牧交错带辽河流域2010-2019年植被覆盖变化及驱动因素分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(22): 63-72. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.22.007
    Li Xia, Zhang Guozhuang, Chen Yonghao, Chen Zhe. Vegetation cover change and driving factors in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Liaohe River Basin of China from 2010 to 2019[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(22): 63-72. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.22.007
    Citation: Li Xia, Zhang Guozhuang, Chen Yonghao, Chen Zhe. Vegetation cover change and driving factors in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Liaohe River Basin of China from 2010 to 2019[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(22): 63-72. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.22.007

    农牧交错带辽河流域2010-2019年植被覆盖变化及驱动因素分析

    Vegetation cover change and driving factors in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Liaohe River Basin of China from 2010 to 2019

    • 摘要: 农牧交错带是中国北方重要的生态屏障,厘清其内部植被变化特征及驱动机理对区域生态建设和环境保护具有重要战略意义。虽然一些学者对辽河流域植被变化的特点和影响因素进行了研究,但植被变化是一个复杂的过程,部分研究只考虑了单因素对流域内植被变化的影响,而没有充分探讨因素之间交互作用对植被的复杂影响。该研究基于MOD1S NDVI数据,采用因子回归和因子交互相结合的方法,从区域和整体角度分析了2010-2019年自然和社会经济因素对辽河流域植被覆盖度(Fractional Vegetation Cover,FVC)变化的影响。研究结果表明:1)2010-2019年辽河流域FVC整体呈上升趋势,10年平均FVC值为0.68,植被覆盖水平整体较高。植被覆盖度上升趋势从大到小依次为牧区、农区、半牧区。2)自然因素对全流域植被变化的解释力大于人为因素,其中降水的解释力最为显著。同时,植被变化和降水变化存在明显的同步性,此趋势在牧区最为显著。3)多数因子对植被覆盖变化的影响呈现出相互促进和非线性增强的特点,不存在完全独立因子。对整个流域影响最大的三组交互作用因素是降水∩温度、降水∩高程、降水∩风速。在牧区和半牧区,自然因素的交互作用对植被变化起主导作用,而在农区则是自然和人类活动共同作用,显著影响了植被变化。4)降水梯度影响了辽河流域植被覆盖空间异质性的解释程度。随着降水的增加,其他环境因子与FVC的拟合效果越来越好。农牧交错带植被空间覆盖异质性显著,受自然和人类活动多种因子交互作用,自然因子强于人类活动,降水在全流域及各分区植被变化中起到了关键作用。该区域植被保护应因地制宜,分类施策,以自然恢复为主,降低人为扰动,辅以合理生态工程建设。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Driving mechanisms of Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) can be a prerequisite for decision-making on vegetation restoration and management. As the intersection of farming and animal husbandry activities in China, the Liaohe River basin is of great significance for the regional ecological construction and environmental protection, in order to clarify the internal vegetation change characteristics and driving mechanisms. Much effort has been made into the characteristics and influencing factors of vegetation change in the region. However, it is still lacking in the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation in the region as an Agro-pastoral intersection zone. Since vegetation change is a complex process, it is very necessary to fully consider the complex influence of the interaction between environmental factors on vegetation change, rather than only the individual factors. In this study, the spatial heterogeneity of FVC was analyzed in the Liaohe River Basin from 2010 to 2019 using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from the MOD13Q1 product. Furthermore, the factor regression and interaction were combined to jointly explore the effects of natural and socioeconomic factors on the vegetation changes from a regional and overall perspective. The results showed that: 1) There was an overall rising trend of FVC, with a 10-year average FVC of 0.68 and an overall high level of vegetation cover. The most significant was ranked in the order of the pastoral areas > agricultural areas > semi-pastoral areas, and the vegetation improvement trend in the pastoral areas, in terms of the rising trend of vegetation cover. 2) The explanatory power of natural factors on the vegetation changes in the whole basin was greater than that of human factors, among which the explanatory power of precipitation was the most significant. At the same time, there was an outstanding synchronization between the vegetation and precipitation change, where this trend was the most significant in the pastoral areas. 3) The interaction indicated that most factors showed a mutually reinforcing and non-linear enhancement of vegetation change. It infers that the vegetation change was a complex process with multi-factor effects from a system perspective. There were no completely independent factors. The three largest groups of interacting factors across the basin were the precipitation and temperature, precipitation and elevation, and precipitation and wind speed. The natural factors dominated the interaction of vegetation in the pastoral and semi-pastoral areas. By contrast, a combination of natural and human activities significantly affected the vegetation change in the agricultural areas. 4) The precipitation gradient greatly contributed to the explanation degree of FVC spatial heterogeneity. The environmental factors better fitted the FVC with the increase in precipitation. The precipitation was an important catalyst for the vegetation change. 5) human activities also posed an important influence on the vegetation change. The positive effects of human activities were generally dominant in the study area over the past 10 years. Such reasonable human activities can be maintained to increase the FVC in the Liaohe River basin.

       

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