冯禹, 崔宁博, 魏新平, 赵璐, 王君勤. 川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征与成因分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(14): 78-86. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.14.011
    引用本文: 冯禹, 崔宁博, 魏新平, 赵璐, 王君勤. 川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征与成因分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(14): 78-86. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.14.011
    Feng Yu, Cui Ningbo, Wei Xinping, Zhao Lu, Wang Junqin. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and causes analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration in hilly area of central Sichuan[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2014, 30(14): 78-86. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.14.011
    Citation: Feng Yu, Cui Ningbo, Wei Xinping, Zhao Lu, Wang Junqin. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and causes analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration in hilly area of central Sichuan[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2014, 30(14): 78-86. DOI: doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.14.011

    川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征与成因分析

    Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and causes analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration in hilly area of central Sichuan

    • 摘要: 为深入认识川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量(reference crop evapotranspiration, ET0)变化特征,使用联合国粮农组织1998年推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算川中丘陵区13个气象站点近52 a(1961-2012年)的逐日ET0,利用GIS克里金插值法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析川中丘陵区ET0时空变化特征;在此基础上,使用基于通径分析原理的指标敏感性分析方法研究ET0的变化成因。结果表明:近52 a来川中丘陵区ET0年际间整体下降明显,ET0年内变化呈单峰曲线,主要集中在每年3-10月,占全年ET0的85.82%;ET0空间分布整体上呈现自东北、东南向中部递减趋势;在指标敏感性分析中,分别去掉日照时数(n)、风速(u2)、相对湿度(relative humidity ,RH)和温度(T)后,剩余3个气象因子对回归方程估测可靠程度(E)由0.89分别降为0.596、0.81、0.84和0.88,表明ET0对n最为敏感,其次为u2、RH和T。因此,日照时数和风速是引起川中丘陵区ET0变化的最主要气象因子,相对湿度次之,温度对ET0的影响最小。当使用各季度平均温度代替逐日温度计算ET0时,各季度估算结果同实际计算结果间决定系数分别达到了0.93、0.97、0.96和0.94,表明估算精度较高,因此在资料缺乏情况下可以使用各季度平均温度替代温度计算ET0。该研究可为川中丘陵区的农田水分管理提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is of importance to estimate crop water requirement and make plans of irrigation scheme. Research on temporal and spatial variation of ET0 is important for regional agricultural water management and regional water allocation. The purpose of this study was to make a better understanding of the variation characteristics of ET0 in hilly area of central Sichuan where the agricultural water mostly depends on irrigation. Penman-Monteith equation recommended by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1998 was applied to calculate the daily ET0 for 13 meteorological stations within 52 years (1961-2012). Kriging of GIS was introduced to draw the maps of ET0 that could present a clear spatial distribution of ET0. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to analyze temporal distribution characteristics of ET0, and the causes of ET0 change were manifested by sensitivity analysis based on path analysis method. The results showed that: annual ET0 change had a conspicuous decreasing trend in hilly area of central Sichuan in the past 52 years, especially in Langzhong,Yibin and Ziyang station where ET0 decreased significantly (α=0.05). However, in Mianyang station, ET0 increased within 52 years; The temporal distribution characteristics indicated that, during 1961-1979, ET0 increased gradually then decreased until 2003. The trend of ET0 change in a year was a single peak curve, and the change accounting for 85.82% of the year was mostly between March and October. The maximum of ET0 was 3.46 mm/d in July and the minimum was 0.79 mm/d in December. The spatial distribution of ET0 revealed that ET0 decreased gradually from northeast and southeast to the center. During 1961-1970 and 1981-1990, there were several sudden changes in spatial distribution. Compared with the average value within 52 years, the ET0 was smaller in Bazhong station but bigger in Ziyang and Neijiang station. Considering the uneven distribution of ET0 within a year and the sudden changes, the conclusion could be attained that the variation characteristics of ET0 in hilly area of central Sichuan was influenced by the change of weather greatly. The path analysis between meteorological factors and ET0 revealed that the path coefficient of sunshine duration (n), wind speed (u2), relative humidity (RH) and temperature (T) were 0.61, 0.37, -0.25 and 0.019, respectively. Their overall contribution to R2 were 0.48, 0.28, 0.13 and 0.001, respectively. When n, u2, RH and T were removed respectively in sensitivity analysis, R2 values were reduced from 0.89 to 0.596, 0.81,0.84 and 0.88, respectively. R2 had the biggest change when n was removed, and thus ET0 was more sensitive to n and n was the key meteorological factor affecting ET0 in hilly area of central Sichuan. The coefficient of determination between actual and estimated ET0 in four quarters was 0.93, 0.97, 0.96 and 0.94, respectively, when average quarter temperature instead of T was used to estimate ET0, which indicated that it was reasonable to use average quarter temperature to calculate ET0 when meteorological data in hilly areas of central Sichuan was lacking. This research provided information for agricultural production in hilly area of central Sichuan.

       

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