Abstract: Accelerating urbanization is a major development strategy proposed by the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC) National Congress. The prospect for the influence of China's future urbanization evolution on cultivated land relates to the realization of a red line target of cultivated land protection and food safety. To reveal the evolution of China's urbanization impact on cultivated land, the author explores the problem based on a logistic model. Using SPSS software and China's urbanization level data from 1978 to 2011, the goodness-of-fit maximum estimation method of regression curve was employed to estimate the saturation value of China's urbanization level and the Logistic model of describing China's urbanization evolution was structured. Accordingly, the development level of China's future urbanization was predicted. Based on a STRIPAT model and relevant data of China 's eco-social development from 1996 to 2011, SPSS software was combined with a partial least squares regression method to reveal the marginal contributions of urbanization process, population, economic development level, and technical factors on cultivated land change. According to China's future urbanization evolutionary trend and the marginal influence of urbanization on cultivated land, the influence of China's future urbanization on cultivated land was measured. The results are shown as the followings：1）The saturation value of China's urbanization level is 83%. 2） China's urbanization level will reach 57.68% and 65.73% in 2020 and 2030 respectively. Before 2020, the annual average growth rate of urbanization will be 0.97 percent point, and from 2020 to 2030, that will be 0.81percent point. 3） The marginal elasticity coefficient of urbanization, population, economic development level, and technological factors on cultivated land change will be ?0.007391, ?0.007133, ?0.009343, and?0.002952 respectively. 4）From 2012 to 2020, urbanization evolution will lead to a net area reduction of cultivated land of 13.81×104hm2 with an annual average reduction of 1.53×104 hm2. From 2020 to 2030, that will be 10.87×104 hm2 with an annual average reduction of 1.09×104 hm2. Based on the results of the above, several measures should be implemented including focusing on the quality of urbanization with a moderate grasp on the speed of urbanization, scientifically preparing the annual land supply planning, adopting a differentiated land supply strategy, abandoning the wrong philosophy of land finance, strictly implementing national protection policies foe cultivated land, rigorously controlling real estate land and low-level or repeated production land; severely punishing violations of land use, and strengthening the policy recommendations on land supervision. The results can provide a reference for management to grasp the moderate urbanization pace and rhythm, scientifically prepare a land supply plan, and formulate cultivated land protection policies, as well as offer a method of reference for similar studies on a provincial scale.