刘东, 封志明, 杨艳昭, 游 珍. 中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(7): 1-6.
    引用本文: 刘东, 封志明, 杨艳昭, 游 珍. 中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(7): 1-6.
    Liu Dong, Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao, You Zhen. Characteristics of grain production and spatial pattern of land carrying capacity of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2011, 27(7): 1-6.
    Citation: Liu Dong, Feng Zhiming, Yang Yanzhao, You Zhen. Characteristics of grain production and spatial pattern of land carrying capacity of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2011, 27(7): 1-6.

    中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状

    Characteristics of grain production and spatial pattern of land carrying capacity of China

    • 摘要: 首先分析了1949-2008年中国粮食生产发展过程特点,随后以粮食为判据,基于人口与粮食关系,建立土地资源承载力模型和土地资源承载指数模型,从分县尺度对中国土地资源承载力空间格局现状进行了分析。结果表明: 1949-2008年中国粮食生产呈台阶式上升特征,且伴随周期性波动,具有明显的不稳定性;人口增幅小于粮食产量增幅,人均粮食占有量从建国初期的不足209 kg,增长至21世纪初期的400 kg,呈稳步提升态势;2007年我国分县土地资源承载力主要以人口超载、粮食短缺为主要特征。东北平原、华北平原、长江中下游、河西走廊、河套地区及四川盆地等主要粮食生产区表现为粮食盈余,而人口压力较大的东南沿海以及粮食生产水平较低的西北干旱半干旱地区则表现为人口超载。国家尺度上,中国粮食尚处于盈余状态,因此粮食短缺地区需通过贸易、调配来满足超载人口的粮食需求。东、中部城市密集地区人粮关系尤为紧张,随着城市化进程不断加快,这些地区人粮矛盾会进一步加剧,粮食贸易和调配趋势也会越来越明显。该研究可为国家粮食安全与区域可持续发展提供科学依据和决策支持。

       

      Abstract: China has made great achievements in grain production during the recent 60 years. However, still considered one of the largest developing countries with a fast population growth in the world, China’s food security has always been a global concern and an important topic in the world, in which land carry capacity based on grain and population is one of the important fields. In this study the characteristics of China’s grain production was analyzed and summarized firstly, and then, land carrying capacity (LCC) and land carrying capacity index (LCCI) models were developed from the point of man-grain relationship. Finally, the LCCI was calculated for each county of China in 2007 and systematically evaluated towards the land carrying capacity and its spatial pattern. The results showed that: from 1949 to 2008, with a periodic fluctuation, the grain production of China showed an upward tendency from 200 million to 500 million tons. The population growth rate (an increase of 145%) was less than that of grain yield (an increase of 367%), and the grain yield per capita rose steadily from 209 kg in 1949 to 400 kg in the early 21st century; food deficits and population overloading remained the primary characteristics of China's LCC at a county scale in 2007. The grain surplus counties located in the major grain-producing areas so that the population was less than the regional LCC, such as Northeast Plain, North China Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Hexi Corridor, Hetao Plain and Sichuan Basin. While, those counties located in southeast coastal regions of China with a high population density, and regions with critical natural environment and low grain production, such as the arid region of Northwest China, the Tibetan Plateau, the Loess Plateau, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Mountain of North China, had a man-grain conflict and appeared to be population overloading. China had a large net grain surplus at a national scale in 2007, thus for counties with a deficit in grain production, large amount of grain should be traded and transported from other China’s regions in order to meet people’s demands. It should be remarked that city-clustered regions located in eastern and central part of China, such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Wuhan Metropolitan Area and so on, had a tenser man-grain conflict than others. Along with the rapid development and urbanization trends in China, the man-grain conflict in these regions will become more and more severe, and the trade and transportation of grain will also appeared to be even more important.

       

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