吕超, 孙佳新, 刘爽. 利用机器学习算法的海洋渔船捕捞能力影响因素权重分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2021, 37(13): 135-141. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.13.016
    引用本文: 吕超, 孙佳新, 刘爽. 利用机器学习算法的海洋渔船捕捞能力影响因素权重分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2021, 37(13): 135-141. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.13.016
    Lyu Chao, Sun Jiaxin, Liu Shuang. Weight analysis of influencing factors of fishing capacity of marine fishing vessels using machine learning algorithm[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2021, 37(13): 135-141. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.13.016
    Citation: Lyu Chao, Sun Jiaxin, Liu Shuang. Weight analysis of influencing factors of fishing capacity of marine fishing vessels using machine learning algorithm[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2021, 37(13): 135-141. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.13.016

    利用机器学习算法的海洋渔船捕捞能力影响因素权重分析

    Weight analysis of influencing factors of fishing capacity of marine fishing vessels using machine learning algorithm

    • 摘要: 针对传统方法在宏观层面上进行海洋渔船捕捞能力计量分析中,对指标数量要求有限,考虑因素不足、渔船作业数据利用不充分等问题,该研究在分析南海三省2018至2019年间,约20万条海洋渔船捕捞监测数据特征的基础上,提出了基于机器学习算法的单船捕捞能力影响因素权重分析评价模型。首先,利用四分位法、主成分分析法以及数据标准化与独热编码法对原始数据集进行了清洗处理,获得了4万余条可靠数据。进一步,采用机器学习算法,构建了BP神经网络、决策树和随机森林算法分析模型,同时,利用网格搜索和交叉验证结合遍历循环创建6000次生成学习曲线,结果表明随机森林模型的均方误差、平均绝对误差和可决系数均最优,表现最好的一组参数的决定系数达0.951,明显优于另外两种算法模型。最后,基于随机森林算法对各指标进行权重提取,得出本次研究数据集中渔捞监测数据所包含的影响因素权重排序,结果显示,影响渔船捕捞能力的各因素权重依次为:网次产量(50.070%)、pa(功率、总吨和船长降维后的指标)(23.779%)、拖网(包括单拖、双拖以及拖虾网)(9.409%)、网次数量(6.782%)、作业时长(4.578%)、刺网(2.019%)、张网(1.347%)、围网(1.228%)、罩网(0.628%)、杂渔具(0.122%)、钓具(0.022%)、船龄(0.009%)、钢质渔船(0.002%)、玻璃钢渔船(0.002%)和木质渔船(0.002%)。研究结果明晰表征了各因素的影响占比,可为海洋捕捞渔船捕捞能力量化评价与监管、减船转产与更新改造等海洋捕捞业管理提供重要的技术支撑与参考。

       

      Abstract: Previous quantitative analysis is often made at the macro level, such as the fishing capacity of marine fishing vessels. There are some limited requirements on the number of indicators in the fishing vessel operation. In this study, a weight evaluation model was presented on the influencing factors in the fishing capacity of a single vessel using machine learning. Fishing monitoring data were about 200,000 rows from 2018 to 2019 in three provinces of the South China Sea. First, the cleaning of original data was implemented using quartile, principal component analysis, data standardization, and unique thermal coding, where reliable data of more than 40,000 rows was obtained. Secondly, machine learning was used to construct the BP neural network, decision tree, and random forest models. At the same time, the grid search and cross validation combined with the traversal cycle were used to create 6,000 generations of learning curves. The results showed that the random forest model performed the best in terms of mean square error, mean absolute error, and determination coefficient, where the determination coefficient of the best parameters group was 0.951, indicating that the random forest model was obviously superior to others. Finally, the weights of each index were extracted using the random forest, thereby obtaining the weights of fishing monitoring data. The result showed that the weights of various influencing factors were as follows: Output of nets(50.070%), PCA (after reducing the dimension of power, gross ton and length)(23.779%), trawls (including single tow, double tow and shrimp tow nets)( 9.409%), number of nets(6.782%), operating time(4.578%), gill nets(2.019%), net drawing(1.347%), seine nets(1.228%), cover nets(0.628%), fishing gear(0.122%), fishing tackle(0.022%), age of vessel(0.009%), material of fishing vessel (steel)(0.002%), material of fishing vessel (FRP) (0.002%) and material of fishing vessel (wood) (0.002%).The research results clearly represent the impact proportion of various factors, which can provide important technical support and reference for the quantitative evaluation and supervision of the fishing capacity of marine fishing vessels, ship reduction and conversion, renewal and transformation and other marine fishing industry management.

       

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