刘殿锋, 周泊远, 何建华, 孔雪松, 刘耀林. 空间交互视角下中国城市群耕地变化影响因素分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2019, 35(16): 274-283. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.031
    引用本文: 刘殿锋, 周泊远, 何建华, 孔雪松, 刘耀林. 空间交互视角下中国城市群耕地变化影响因素分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2019, 35(16): 274-283. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.031
    Liu Dianfeng, Zhou Boyuan, He Jianhua, Kong Xuesong, Liu Yaolin. Analysis of influencing factors of cultivated land change in Chinese urban agglomerations considering spatially inter-city interactions[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2019, 35(16): 274-283. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.031
    Citation: Liu Dianfeng, Zhou Boyuan, He Jianhua, Kong Xuesong, Liu Yaolin. Analysis of influencing factors of cultivated land change in Chinese urban agglomerations considering spatially inter-city interactions[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2019, 35(16): 274-283. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.031

    空间交互视角下中国城市群耕地变化影响因素分析

    Analysis of influencing factors of cultivated land change in Chinese urban agglomerations considering spatially inter-city interactions

    • 摘要: 城镇化发展对耕地变化的影响因素是中国长期关注的热点问题。传统研究较多关注城市个体增长与耕地非农转换间的关系,鲜有关于城市空间联系及协同发展视角下耕地变化影响因素的研究,而随着城市空间交互作用的加强,人口集聚、产业结构调整、基础设施建设等催生出的多元用地需求激化了其与耕地保护间的复杂用地矛盾。城市群是中国当下新型城镇化的主体,从城市群视角探讨耕地变化的影响机制更具前瞻性和现势性。该文采用引力模型与城市流强度模型对城市群空间联系进行度量,从城市与城市群双重尺度出发,构建了耕地非农转换影响因素的多层线性回归分析模型,探索2005-2015年间全国主要城市群耕地变化的影响因素及区域分异特征。结果表明,城市群耕地数量变化的尺度效应和地区分异特征显著。在城市尺度上,耕地变化与农业人口、工业经济及农业科技均呈正相关关系,与城镇化背景下建设用地扩张、经济全球化带来的外资增长存在负相关关系;城市群尺度空间联系指标均与耕地面积变化呈负相关关系。区域差异体现在农业人口、城镇人口规模等级、建设用地面积对内陆城市群耕地面积变化影响较大,而工业化、农业机械化水平在沿海有着更大推动作用;城市群空间经济联系的影响在沿海地区较明显,外向功能作用力则在内陆有所体现。与零模型、半条件模型的对比分析表明,多层线性回归用于城市群耕地变化影响因素研究具有有效性,同时也揭示了不同尺度因素对耕地变化的影响机制,从而为国土空间开发战略下城市群发展与耕地保护提供有力的决策支持。

       

      Abstract: As the basic means of agricultural production, cultivated land plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring food security and promoting social and economic development. With the enhancement of urban interactions in space, the land use conflicts between urban development and agricultural protection have been intensified due to the diversified land demands caused by population agglomeration, industrial restructuring and infrastructure construction. Exploring the impacts of urbanization on cultivated land change has become a hot issue in China at present. Most of current studies have paid increasing attentions to the relationship between the growth of individual cities and cultivated land occupation, and few of them attempted to reveal the driving factors of cultivated land change from the perspective of spatial interaction of cities. Urban agglomeration is the main form of new urbanization in China. It is crucial to identify the distribution of cultivated land change and its driving factors from the perspective of urban agglomeration. In this paper, we measured the spatial connection of urban agglomerations based on the gravity equation and the urban flow intensity model, and then explored influencing factors of cultivated land conversion at the scales of individual cities and urban agglomerations during the period of 2005-2015 using a multilevel linear regression model. The research results show that the area of cultivated land in the major urban agglomerations has dropped sharply by 17 572.8 square kilometers in the decade from 2005 to 2015. The situation of cultivated land protection is grim. Then it shows significant scale effects and regional heterogeneity of cultivated land change in urban agglomerations. At the urban scale, the change of cultivated land is positively correlated with agricultural population, industrial economy and agricultural science & technology development, whereas negatively correlated with the growth of foreign investment and the expansion of construction land. At the scale of urban agglomeration, both indicators of spatial connection have a negative correlation with cultivated land change. Moreover, remarkable regional differences of influencing factors of cultivated land change exist between coastal and inland China. Comparing the regional differentiation of the degree of influence of outward functional forces, it can be found that the spatial interaction of coastal urban agglomerations has a more positive effect on the protection of cultivated land than the inland urban agglomerations with relatively backward development, and the negative impact is also smaller than that of inland urban agglomerations. The comparison with other models verified the effectiveness of the multilevel linear regression approach to reveal the influencing mechanism of cultivated land change on different scales. And the result of null model has proved the necessity and rationality in the research perspective of spatial interactions between cities. As a word, the strengthening of spatial interaction in urban agglomerations under rough development will obstruct the protection of cultivated land. In this case, controlling industrialization and urbanization reasonably, concerning the scale effects and regional heterogeneity, improving laws and regulations, correcting the rough development path, and improving land use efficiency might be the critical roads to relieve conflicts between development of urban agglomerations and protection of cultivated land.

       

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