高继卿, 杨晓光, 董朝阳, 李克南. 气候变化背景下中国北方干湿区降水资源变化特征分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(12): 99-110. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.12.014
    引用本文: 高继卿, 杨晓光, 董朝阳, 李克南. 气候变化背景下中国北方干湿区降水资源变化特征分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(12): 99-110. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.12.014
    Gao Jiqing, Yang Xiaoguang, Dong Chaoyang, Li Kenan. Precipitation resource changed characteristics in arid and humid regions in Northern China with climate changes[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(12): 99-110. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.12.014
    Citation: Gao Jiqing, Yang Xiaoguang, Dong Chaoyang, Li Kenan. Precipitation resource changed characteristics in arid and humid regions in Northern China with climate changes[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(12): 99-110. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.12.014

    气候变化背景下中国北方干湿区降水资源变化特征分析

    Precipitation resource changed characteristics in arid and humid regions in Northern China with climate changes

    • 摘要: 中国北方地区降水资源空间差异较大且种植结构迥异,细致分析北方不同干湿区降水资源的变化规律和分布特征,可为北方地区合理利用降水资源,调节种植结构,适应气候变化提供科学参考。该文利用中国北方15个省市308个气象站点1961-2010年逐日降水资料,以1981年为时间节点,将过去50 a分为1961-1980年和1981-2010年两个时段,基于干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区划分标准,明确了与1961-1980年相比,1981年以来北方干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区空间变化特征;依据中国气象局降水量等级标准及春夏秋冬四季划分标准,系统分析了北方三大区域内小雨、中雨、大雨及暴雨各等级降水量和降水日数在全年降水量和降水日数中的比例,以及降水在一年四季中的分配特征。研究结果表明:气候变化背景下,1981年以来西北地区的干旱区面积减少,东北地区的半湿润区面积减少,而半干旱区面积扩大明显。研究时段内干旱区年降水量呈显著增加趋势,最近30a各等级降水量和降水日数均高于1980年之前的20a,其中小雨、中雨等级增加幅度最大;季节变化中,尤以冬季最明显。半干旱区和半湿润区年降水日数均呈显著下降趋势,最近30 a小雨等级降水量和降水日数均有明显下降;夏季和秋季降水量和降水日数均减少,半干旱区夏季降水减少更明显,半湿润区则以秋季减少最为显著。北方地区年内发生的降水事件95%以上是小雨和中雨,小雨和中雨量总计占全年降水量的75%;研究时段内北方地区的小雨频率有不同程度下降,而中雨频率呈升高趋势,干旱区表现尤其明显,其对作物生长季内降水有效利用影响较小。各季节降水分配的变化中,干旱区和半干旱区春季降水贡献率升高,半湿润区秋季降水贡献率降低;干旱区仅夏季降水频率有下降;半干旱区各季节降水频率指标变动最突出,春冬季节降水频率有增加而夏秋季节降水频率在下降;半湿润区春季和冬季降水频率有所增加,而秋季降水频率下降;研究区域内各降水指标极大值主要集中南北两端;干旱区与半干旱区内北疆地区及内蒙古东北部的强降水量、强降水日数大于区域内青海、甘肃、宁夏的中部和南部。所得结论可为明确中国北方地区不同干湿区降水资源变化及种植结构和作物布局调整提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 308 observational stations in the 15 provinces of the northern region of China during 1961-2010, we divided the northern China into 3 zones (arid, semi-arid and semi-humid) according to the 200 and 400 mm isohyets. In this research, the year 1981 was taken as a time node to divide the period from 1961 to 2010 into 2 sub-periods. We figure out the spatial variation of the 3 zones between the 2 sub-periods. The numbers of the days of light, moderate, heavy and torrent precipitation grades were calculated, and their distribution characteristics in each season were studied. Meanwhile, we also analyzed the frequency and intensity of each precipitation grade and its contribution to the annual rainfall. The main conclusions were listed as follows: as the change of rainfall, the semi-arid zone expanded significantly in the research region since 1981 but the semi-humid zone in Northeast China and the arid zone in the southeast of Northwest China decreased. During the recent 50 years, the annual rainfall increased in arid zone, while the rainy days decreased in semi-arid and semi-humid zone. All precipitation indices at different grades in the second period (after 1981) were higher than those in the first period, especially at light and moderate grades in the north. The most obvious seasonal variation in arid zone happened in the winter. The summer and autumn precipitation in the second period was less than that in the first period in semi-arid and semi-humid zone. It was worthy to note that the precipitation in semi-arid zone significantly decreased in summer, while in autumn occurred the remarkable seasonal precipitation variation in semi-humid zone. The frequency of light and moderate rainy days to the annual rainy days in the northern region was more than 95%, while the contribution of light and moderate rainfall to the annual rainfall was 75%; although the frequency of moderate rain was less than the light rain, it had a remarkable upward trend and the frequency of light rain was in a downward trend, especially in the arid zone, so the efficiency of precipitation for crops in growing season was less affected. In arid area, the contribution of rainfall in spring was on the rise and the frequency of rainy days in summer was on the opposite. In the semi-arid zone, the contribution of rainfall in spring also increased, what's more, the seasonal change of rainfall frequency was very evident that the frequencies of rainy days in spring and winter increased and those in summer and autumn decreased. In addition, the frequency of rainy days in spring and winter also improved in the semi-humid zone, and the most obvious change in the semi-humid zone happened in autumn where the amount of rainfall and rainy days declined. The fluctuations of rainfall in summer and autumn or extreme precipitation events prone to occur may adversely affect the crop growth in the region. The extreme value for each precipitation index mainly was concentrated at the north and south ends of those 3 zones. The amount and frequency of heavy rainfall in the northern part of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia were larger than those in the Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia. This study is important for quantifying the situation of precipitation resources in the areas with different arid and humid conditions in northern region of China, which is helpful for the adjustment of planting structure and crop layout.

       

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