Abstract:
Abstract: In order to restore the uncertain environment for the optimization of regional land use structure, obtain better results in the optimization of land use structure, and create a new perspective for the optimization of land use structure, this paper examined the optimization of land use structure based on uncertainty. In this study, the optimization of land use structure based on uncertainty was classified into two categories: the optimization when the uncertainty factors are most likely to occur and the optimization when the uncertainty factors occur with a certain probability. The result of the first type of optimization was a specific land use structure, and the result of the second type of optimization was an elastic range of the land use structure. In this study, we first estimated the optimal land use structure when the uncertainty factors are most likely to occur using the expectation-model approach, and then calculated the elastic range of optimal land use structure when the uncertainty factors occur with a certain probability using the random simulation method based on the multi-objective genetic algorithm. When the uncertainty factors were most likely to occur, the economic benefit and ecological benefit for the optimal land use structure in Yangzhou city in 2020 was 10.0?1011 Yuan and 8.98?1011 Yuan, respectively, which was larger than the economic benefit and ecological benefit for the current land use structure and lager than the economic benefit and ecological benefit for the land use structure in Yangzhou land use overall planning. In the elastic range for the optimization of land use structure in 2020 in Yangzhou when the likelihood that the uncertainty factors will occur is 80%, the land use types which bear the largest uncertainty are cultivated land, urban construction and mining land and garden land, and the land use types which are most sensitive to the uncertainty are woodland, garden land, and transportation land. This paper restored the uncertainty environment for the optimization of land use structure, proposed a method for the optimization of land use structure based on uncertainty, and provided a theoretical basis and scientific method for the calculation of the elastic range of an optimal land use structure and the change in land use structure.