基于增强回归树的气候指标异常对东北玉米产量影响评估

    Assessment of the impact in climate index anomaly on maize yield in Northeast China based on the boosted regression tree

    • 摘要: 东北地区是中国玉米主产区之一,在国家粮食安全中起着举足轻重的作用。玉米对平均和极端气候条件的年际变化非常敏感,明确影响玉米产量的关键气候变量对玉米生产管理至关重要。该研究构建了包括1981—2022年东北三省农业气象观测站的玉米生育期、产量和气象数据的基本数据库,选用距平值表示气候指标异常,利用增强回归树(boosted regression tree,BRT)模型,揭示了春玉米不同生长发育阶段平均态气候指标、极端态温度指标和温度-水分复合指标异常对气象产量的影响程度。结果表明,东北三省春玉米气象产量波动较大,不同年代间春玉米气象产量变化明显。BRT模型可以很好地解析区域玉米产量变化的主要影响因子,交叉验证系数在0.61 ~ 0.75之间。基于构建的BRT模型结果显示,影响各年代东北三省春玉米产量变化的关键气候因子不同,1981—1990年玉米生长季内相对湿度距平(平均态水分异常)是影响区域玉米产量的主要因子,1991—2000年玉米生长季内高温度日距平(极端态高温异常)是影响区域玉米产量的主要因子,而2001—2010年和2011—2022年玉米生殖生长阶段高温度日距平是影响区域玉米产量的主要因子。不同年代春玉米生殖生长阶段极端态低温异常对东北三省春玉米产量影响贡献度逐渐变大,且1991—2000年和2001—2010年生殖生长阶段低温度日距平对玉米产量影响呈负效应,而2011—2022年该指标对玉米产量影响转为正效应。近年来,极端态高温异常是影响东北玉米气象产量的关键气候因子,且随着低温度日距平值的减小,极端态低温异常对东北玉米产量的影响逐渐由负效应向正效应转变。在未来东北玉米的种植管理上,要充分利用极端低温胁迫的减少并尽量降低极端高温带来的危害以保障玉米高产稳产。

       

      Abstract: Northeast China is one of the major maize-producing regions in China, playing a pivotal role in national food security. Maize is highly sensitive to inter-annual variations in both average and extreme climatic conditions. Identifying the key climatic variables affecting maize yield is crucial for maize production management. In this study, a fundamental database is constructed, integrating maize phenology data, yield data, and meteorological records from agro-meteorological observation stations across the three provinces of Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning) spanning the period 1981–2022. The boosted regression tree (BRT) model is employed to quantify the impacts of anomalies in average climatic indicators, extreme temperature indicators, and temperature-moisture compound indicators on the meteorological yield of spring maize during maize different growing periods. The results show that the meteorological yield of spring maize in the three provinces exhibit significant inter-annual fluctuations, with distinct variations across different decades. The BRT model effectively disentangle the primary factors driving regional maize yield changes, with cross-validation coefficients ranging from 0.61 to 0.75. Based on the BRT models of different periods, the dominant factors influencing spring maize meteorological yield vary across decades: During the period from 1981 to 1990, anomalies in relative humidity (average precipitation) are the primary factor affecting regional maize yield; During the period from 1991 to 2000, anomalies in heat growing degree days (extreme high temperatures) during the maize growing season become the dominant factor; During the periods from 2001 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2022, anomalies in heat growing degree days (extreme high temperatures) during the reproductive growing stage of maize emerge as the key driver of maize yield. Notably, the contribution of anomalies in extreme low temperatures during the reproductive growing stage to spring maize yield in the study region gradually increase over the decades. Specifically: During the periods from 1991 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2010, anomalies in cold growing degree days during the reproductive growing stage of spring maize exert a negative effect on maize yield; In contrast, during the period from 2011 to 2022, these anomalies shift to a positive effect on maize yield. Overall, anomalies in heat growing degree days are the dominant factor influencing maize meteorological yield. Furthermore, as the anomaly in cold growing degree days shows a decreasing trend, the impact of extreme low-temperature anomalies on maize yield in Northeast China gradually transitions from a negative to a positive effect. In the future, it is essential to make full use of the reduction in extreme low-temperature stress and minimize the harm caused by extreme high temperatures to ensure high and stable maize yields in Northeast China.

       

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