华北平原农业水-土-能-碳关联系统足迹流动及网络特征分析

    Analysis of footprint fluxes and network characteristics in the agricultural water-land-energy-carbon nexus system of the North China Plain

    • 摘要: 揭示粮食主产区水-土-能-碳关联系统足迹流动与网络特征,对于优化区域资源配置、实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。该研究基于环境扩展型投入产出模型核算华北平原农业水、土、能、碳直接消耗和隐含资源环境要素流动,并运用生态网络分析和耦合协调度模型探究系统网络特征及关联关系。结果表明:1)2012-2017年华北平原农业水、土、能、碳直接资源消耗及隐含资源环境要素流动均呈上升趋势且具有明显的空间差异,华北平原与中国其他省份贸易间隐含农业用水、耕地利用、能源利用和碳排放分别增加了5.295×109m3(16.5%)、1.918×108hm2(3.1%)、1.186×106t(17.2%)、3.942×107t(20.9%),华北平原作为中国粮食主产区的地位进一步巩固;2)总体来看,农业虚拟资源呈现由欠发达地区流入发达地区的趋势,逐渐流向人口密集、经济体量大、市场化程度高且交易活跃的地区;3)华北平原农业水-土-能-碳网络循环流比例整体较低且区域间差异较大,资源流动受到限制;省份间生态关系以竞争和掠夺为主,控制、互利共生关系较少;网络效率低冗余高,系统结构相对松散;虽然华北平原水-土-能-碳关联系统耦合协调度均值高于全国平均水平,其可持续发展能力仍有待提升。研究提出统筹兼顾资源关联影响,优化资源要素流动路径,推广现代化及绿色农业等建议,为推动华北平原农业高质量发展,缓解资源稀缺和实现“双碳”目标提供理论参考。

       

      Abstract: The North China Plain (NCP), as China's second-largest plain and a critical grain-producing region, plays a pivotal role in ensuring national food security. However, the rapid agricultural development has intensified resource-environment conflicts, making the region characterized by significant contradictions within its water-land-energy-carbon (WLEC) nexus system. Understanding the linkages among these four elements is critical for optimizing resource allocation and achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study employed an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EE-MRIO) model to quantify direct consumption and embodied flows of agricultural water, land, energy, and carbon in the NCP. Ecological network analysis (ENA) and a coupling coordination degree model were applied to examine network characteristics and interrelationships within WLEC system. The results revealed that: 1) From 2012 to 2017, the direct resource consumption and the embodied flows exhibited upward trends with significant spatial heterogeneity, and the trade-embodied agricultural water use, cropland utilization, energy consumption, and carbon emissions between the NCP and other provinces of China increased by 5.295×109m3(16.5%),1.918×108hm2(3.1%), 1.186×106t(17.2%), and 3.942×107t (20.9%) respectively, thus consolidating the NCP's position as China's primary grain-producing region. 2) In general, virtual agricultural resources flowed predominantly from underdeveloped to developed regions, gradually concentrating in areas with high population density, large economic scale, and active markets. 3) The WLEC network exhibited low cycling ratios with substantial inter-regional disparities, constraining resource mobility. Inter-provincial ecological relationships were dominated by competition and predation, with limited mutualism. The network demonstrated low efficiency, high redundancy, and loose structure. Although the coupling coordination degree of the NCP's WLEC system exceeded the national average, its sustainability capacity requires enhancement. To advance high-quality agricultural development, alleviate resource scarcity, and achieve dual-carbon goals in the NCP, this study proposes three strategic recommendations. First, optimize resource linkages by establishing integrated management mechanisms that consider synergistic effects among water, land, energy, and carbon. Second, improve resource flow pathways through infrastructure development and market-based instruments to enhance system efficiency and reduce redundancy. Third, promote modern, green agricultural practices to simultaneously address resource constraints and emission reduction objectives.

       

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