我国畜禽粪尿资源化利用潜力与土地承载力评估

    Evaluation of the resource utilization potential and land carrying capacity of manure and urine of livestock and poultry in China

    • 摘要: 针对我国畜禽粪尿资源化利用潜力不明与土地承载力区域失衡问题,本研究在系统估算2022年我国生猪、奶牛、羊等11种畜禽粪尿及氮磷养分总量的基础上,构建“氮磷养分供需—耕地负荷预警”双维度评估框架,建立氮磷养分供需比评估体系。同时聚焦生猪、奶牛、肉牛、羊、蛋鸡、肉鸡6种传统优势畜禽,依据猪粪当量转换标准,开展耕地负荷与预警值评估。结果表明:2022年全国畜禽粪尿及氮磷养分产生量分别为16.25亿吨、954.09万吨和202.31万吨,区域分布高度集中,其中内蒙古、四川、云南、山东、新疆等5省贡献了畜禽粪尿总量的33.77%。北京、上海因畜禽粪尿产生量最低(极差>80倍),氮磷养分供需比仅为0.34和0.31,耕地污染负荷(氮负荷<100 kg/hm2)显著低于全国均值(206 kg/hm2),呈现“低排放—低需求”的资源利用特征。全国氮磷供需比均值为0.53和0.54,理论承载空间剩余46.39%,但区域分异显著。青藏高原畜禽养殖结构以牛羊为主导,其数量在核算的11种主要畜禽中占比分别高达88.90%(西藏)和88.60%(青海),叠加高寒环境与散养模式导致西藏氮供需比高达18.85,单位耕地猪粪当量负荷预警值达Ⅵ级。东南沿海生猪密集区(存栏量占全国7.30%)因人均耕地<0.02 hm2,单位耕地氮负荷(>400 kg/hm2)远超欧盟临界值,预警值达Ⅴ级。研究首次实现我国11种畜禽氮磷养分测算与6类优势畜禽精准耕地负荷评估的参数协同,并提出差异化治理策略。本研究为我国种养循环规划及农业面源污染防治提供了“全口径测算—优势畜禽聚焦—区域适配治理”的科学方案。

       

      Abstract: This study systematically evaluated the resource utilization potential of manure and urine of livestock and poultry and regional disparities in land carrying capacity across China by developing comprehensive inventories of manure, urine, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) production from eleven major animal categories (including swine, dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goat, layer, broiler, and other species) for 2022. The present research established a sophisticated dual-dimensional assessment framework that integrated nutrient supply-demand balance analysis with cropland load warning systems, implementing an evaluation methodology based on the Nitrogen and Phosphorus Supply-Demand Ratio (NPSDR) to quantify the relationship between manure-derived nutrients and crop requirements. This methodological approach incorporated detailed statistical analysis of regional crop patterns, soil characteristics, and climate conditions to ensure accurate assessment of nutrient utilization capacity. Focusing on six dominant livestock species (swine, dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, laying hen, and broiler) that represent the most significant contributors to agricultural nutrient flows, we conducted comprehensive cropland carrying capacity assessment using the standardized Pig Manure Equivalent (PME) conversion methodology to normalize nutrient contents across different manure types, with conversion coefficients derived from extensive laboratory analysis of nutrient composition in various manure types. Results demonstrated national production volumes of 1.625 billion tons for manure and urine, 9.54 million tons for N, and 2.02 million tons for P, with five provinces—Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shandong, and Xinjiang—collectively contributing 33.77% of total manure and urine, indicating highly concentrated spatial distribution patterns that reflect regional specialization in animal production. Metropolitan areas including Beijing and Shanghai showed the lowest manure generation quantities with extreme differences exceeding 80-fold compared to high-production regions, exhibiting NPSDR values of only 0.34 and 0.31 respectively and cropland N loads below 100 kg ha−1, significantly lower than the national average of 206 kg ha−1, characterizing a distinct "low-emission, low-demand" resource utilization pattern typical of highly urbanized regions with limited agricultural activity. While national average NPSDR values for N and P were 0.53 and 0.54 respectively, indicating approximately 46.39% remaining theoretical carrying capacity, substantial regional heterogeneity was observed across different agro-ecological zones, with the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (Qinghai and Tibet) showing extreme N supply-demand ratio of 18.85 in Tibet due to substantial yak and Tibetan sheep inventories combined with high-altitude environmental constraints and extensive grazing systems, resulting in PME load per unit cropland reaching Level VI warning, the highest alert category indicating severe environmental risk, whereas intensive livestock production zones along the southeastern coastal region containing 7.30% of national swine inventory demonstrated excessive N loading rates surpassing 400 kg ha−1 due to severely limited per capita cropland availability (<0.02 hm2), exceeding European Union critical thresholds and triggering Level V warnings, highlighting the critical challenge of nutrient management in high-density livestock production areas. The present research represented the first comprehensive effort to develop synchronized parameters for nutrient estimation across multiple animal categories while enabling precise cropland load assessment, proposing spatially differentiated management strategies through an integrated framework of comprehensive national accounting, prioritized focus on key livestock sources, and regionally adapted governance mechanisms to support sustainable agricultural planning and effective pollution control throughout China, providing valuable insights for policy formulation and implementation of sustainable livestock production systems in developing countries facing similar challenges of agricultural nutrient management and environmental protection.

       

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