基于多尺度的湖南省耕地利用系统韧性及其障碍因子分析

    Multi-scale Analysis of Cultivated Land Use System Resilience and Its Obstacle Factors in Hunan Province

    • 摘要: 为保障中国粮食安全和推动农业绿色转型,科学分析耕地利用系统韧性及其障碍因子时空异质性对抵抗耕地生态风险冲击和稳固农业经济发展具有重要作用。该研究基于“压力—状态—响应”框架构建湖南省耕地利用系统韧性水平测度指标体系,借助基于量子遗传算法的投影寻踪模型、核密度估计及障碍度模型等,对湖南省耕地利用系统韧性展开深入剖析。结果表明:(1)湖南省耕地利用系统韧性水平整体呈波动增长特征,不同农业区走势各异。韧性均值由2008年的1.86上升至2015年的2.18,2022年回落至2.06;湘中南丘岗节水农业区提升显著,湘中南和湘西农业区内部绝对差距加大,长株潭都市农业区两极分化加剧,洞庭湖平湖农业区有收敛趋势。(2)湘西地区由于人为扰动弱与灾害响应治理高效,使得其成为高韧性区,湘中南丘岗节水农业区因耕地资源优越获得更多投入,韧性高值随之偏移,长株潭都市农业区耕地保护未受重视,系统抵抗干扰和冲突的能力偏差。(3)从准则层看,全省障碍度大小表现为压力层>响应层>状态层,响应层障碍度在减小,状态层障碍度有增大趋势。具体到因子层面,降水距平值、自校准帕尔默干旱指数、人均耕地面积、单位耕地面积农业财政支出、农业受灾治理情况等为主要障碍因子。(4)不同农业区障碍因子各异,关键障碍因子呈现空间异质性,并基于此提出“省—农业区—县”三级差异化的韧性提升策略。研究提出差异化耕地利用系统韧性提升策略,为湖南省“省—农业区—县”三级协同耕地保护提供科学参考。

       

      Abstract: The sustainable and stable development of cultivated land use system resilience holds paramount strategic significance for safeguarding national food security and facilitating agricultural green transformation. Conducting scientific analyses on the resilience of cultivated land use systems and the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of their constraining factors plays a pivotal role in mitigating ecological risks and stabilizing agricultural economic development. This study establishes a resilience evaluation index system for Hunan Province's cultivated land use system under the "Pressure-State-Response" (PSR) conceptual framework. Employing advanced methodologies including the Quantum Genetic Algorithm-Projection Pursuit (QGA-PP) model, kernel density estimation, and obstacle factor diagnosis modeling, based on the multi-scale "province-agricultural area-county", we systematically investigate the resilience evolution patterns and constraint mechanisms within Hunan's cultivated land use system. Results indicate:(1) Temporal Dynamics of Resilience: The resilience level of Hunan's cultivated land utilization system exhibited a phased fluctuation pattern across regions. The composite resilience index demonstrated an initial increase from 1.86 in 2008 to a peak of 2.18 in 2015, followed by a gradual decline to 2.06 by 2022; South-Central Hunan demonstrated marked resilience enhancement, while absolute gaps widened between South-Central and Western Hunan. The Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan agricultural zone exhibited aggravated polarization, contrasting with convergence trends in Dongting lake basin agricultural zone. (2) Due to weak human disturbances and efficient disaster response governance, the Xiangxi hilly agricultural zone has become a highly resilient area. Meanwhile, the Central-Southern Hunan water-saving agricultural zone, benefiting from superior cultivated land resources and greater investment, has seen the high resilience values shift to this area. In contrast, the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan agricultural zone demonstrates weaker system resilience due to insufficient emphasis on arable land protection, resulting in limited capacity to resist disturbances and conflicts. (3) At the criteria level, the obstruction degrees across the province rank as follows: pressure layer > response layer > state layer. Notably, the obstruction degree of the response layer has shown a decreasing trend, while that of the state layer displays an increasing tendency. At the factor level, key obstruction factors include precipitation anomaly value, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, per capita arable land area, agricultural fiscal expenditure per unit of cultivated land area, and agricultural disaster governance effectiveness. (4) Spatial heterogeneity of key constraint factors was observed across diverse agricultural zones. Based on this, a three-level differentiated resilience improvement strategy of province-agricultural area-county is proposed. The research proposes strategies for enhancing the resilience of differentiated cultivated land use systems, providing a scientific reference for the three-level synergistic cultivated land protection (province–agricultural zone–county) in Hunan Province.

       

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