基于作物模型的骤发干旱对粮食产量的影响评估

    Assessing the impacts of flash drought on crop yield using a crop model

    • 摘要: 近年来全球骤发干旱(简称骤旱)事件频繁发生,对区域农业生产和粮食安全造成严重威胁,客观评价骤旱对粮食产量的影响具有重要意义。现有少量研究统计分析了中国主要产量基地骤旱事件的演变特征,但缺乏更精细更准确的模拟量化,且针对作物生长特征与多因素叠加影响的定量评估机制研究相对薄弱。该研究基于土壤含水量再分析数据识别中国区域1950—2022年骤旱事件,结合气候条件、作物特征等多源实际数据构建AquaCrop作物模型,提出考虑作物生长季特征的“骤旱-物候-产量”多情景模拟框架,系统评估骤发干旱对粮食作物的影响特征。结果表明:1)AquaCrop模型参数率定后模拟精度较高,玉米、水稻和小麦的决定系数(R2)分别为0.91、0.82和0.77;2)1950—2022年间,中国粮食主产区骤发干旱事件显著增多,其中营养生长期和生殖生长期为主要发生时段,占比分别达38.6%和15.0%;3)作物生长期内,骤旱导致的产量损失普遍高于传统缓慢干旱,平均高出约10%,其中水稻对骤旱最为敏感,其次为玉米,小麦受影响相对较小,且生殖生长期为作物最脆弱阶段,产量损失超过47.10%。这些结果揭示了骤旱对中国粮食生产的冲击,为实现气候变化背景下的农业减灾与可持续发展提供了科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: Frequent occurrence of the global flash drought has posed severe threats to regional agricultural production and food security in recent decades, leading to substantial yield reductions and increasing uncertainties in food systems. Therefore, it is of great importance to quantify the impacts of the flash droughts on crop yields in order to improve the drought risk assessment and agricultural adaptation. A few previous studies have statistically analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of the flash drought events in the major grain-producing regions in China. However, it is still lacking in the fine-scale and process-based quantitation. Particularly, it is often required to consider the crop growth characteristics, phenological stages, and multiple interacting climatic factors. This study aims to assess the impacts of the flash droughts on crop yield and agricultural productivity using a crop model. Flash drought events were also identified in China during 1950–2022 using soil moisture reanalysis data. Multiple datasets were integrated, including the long-term climatic observations, soil properties, and crop-specific parameters. An AquaCrop model was established to simulate the responses of the major grain crops to various drought conditions. A “flash drought–phenology–yield” multi-scenario simulation framework was developed after the simulation. The temporal distribution of the crop phenological stages was explicitly incorporated to evaluate the yield responses to different drought intensities and durations. A systematic and spatially explicit assessment was performed on the evolution characteristics of the flash droughts and their impacts on the crop growth and yield in the diverse climatic zones. The results revealed that: 1) The calibrated AquaCrop model demonstrated high simulation accuracy, with coefficients of determination (R2) for maize, rice, and wheat reaching 0.91, 0.82, and 0.77, respectively. 2) There was a significant increase in the frequency of the flash drought events in the major grain-producing regions from 1950 to 2022, indicating an outstanding upward trend, particularly after the 1980s. The vegetative and reproductive growth stages were identified as the two most vulnerable periods for the flash drought occurrence, accounting for approximately 38.6% and 15.0% of the total events, respectively. 3) The yield losses induced by flash droughts were consistently higher than those by conventional slow-onset droughts within the growing season, with an average increase of about 10% in the yield reduction. Furthermore, the rice exhibited the highest sensitivity to the flash droughts, followed by maize, whereas the wheat was relatively less affected among the staple crops. Moreover, the reproductive growth stage was identified as the most critical period for the yield formation, indicating the most susceptible to flash drought stress (yield losses exceeding 47.10%). Overall, there was a quantitative assessment of the flash drought impacts on the crop yields. The crop phenology and rapid soil moisture depletion were then incorporated into the drought evaluation in the future. The “flash drought–phenology–yield” framework can offer a flexible approach to couple the flash drought dynamics with the crop growth simulations, thereby improving the accuracy of yield impact assessments under complex climates. Consequently, these findings can also provide a scientific basis to develop adaptive strategies, thus enhancing early warning on the agricultural risks with the increasing frequency and intensity of flash droughts.

       

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