基于积温补偿与温源置换改进AquaCrop模型优化覆膜玉米生长动态模拟

    Optimizing and simulating film-mulched maize growth dynamics under temperature compensation and source replacement using the improved AquaCrop model

    • 摘要: 为提升AquaCrop模型在西北旱区覆膜农田中的适配性与模拟精度,该研究通过4 a(2018年、2019年、2023年和2024年)田间试验,设置平作不覆膜(NM)、平作全覆膜(PM)和全膜双垄沟播(BM)3种覆膜种植方式,利用积温补偿和温源置换两种改进方法改进AquaCrop模型,并运用模拟和实测冠层覆盖度、生物量和产量的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)和标准化均方根误差(normalized root mean square error,NRMSE)对模型的改进后效果进行验证。结果表明:苗期至抽雄期土壤温度与空气温度差异显著,在积温计算中可产生明显的补偿效应,PM和BM处理均表现为播种至苗期温度补偿系数(1.23~1.76)大于苗期至抽雄期(0.50~0.67);且播种至抽雄期整体温度补偿增量(0.70~1.54 ℃)介于播种至苗期(1.12~5.12 ℃)与苗期至抽雄期(0.57~1.13 ℃)之间。基于温度补偿方法改进AquaCrop模型后,其PM和BM处理模拟生物量和产量NRMSE相较于改进前模型分别从11.0%~20.6%和10.9%~23.0%降低至10.3%~18.1%和3.7%~20.1%。基于温源置换方法改进AquaCrop模型后,其PM和BM处理模拟生物量和产量NRMSE相比改进前分别降低至6.2%~16.4%和1.4%~17.4%,相比基于积温补偿方法的改进,PM和BM两种覆膜处理的玉米生物量RMSE和NRMSE分别降低0~0.6 t/hm2和0~4.1%,产量RMSE和NRMSE分别降低0~0.8 t/hm2和0~7.9%。两种方法均显著提升了AquaCrop模型对覆膜玉米生物量与产量动态变化的模拟精度,验证了在AquaCrop模型中引入覆膜增温效应的重要性,研究结果拓展了AquaCrop模型在旱区农业的适用范围,为不同覆盖模式与管理措施的农田效益评估提供了可靠的量化工具。

       

      Abstract: An AquaCrop model has been used to simulate the crop growth of the mulched farmland in the arid regions of Northwest China. This study aims to optimize the film-mulched maize growth dynamics for high adaptability and accuracy. Four-year field experiments (2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024) were conducted with three treatments: flat planting without film mulching (NM), flat planting with full film mulching (PM), and full film double ridge furrow sowing (BM). The temperature compensation was proposed to adjust the external meteorological inputs. A compensation coefficient was derived from the relationship between soil and air temperature under mulched conditions. The individual coefficients in the different growth stages were determined to compare with those in the entire growth period; Alternatively, temperature source replacement was implemented to replace daily extreme air temperatures with daily extreme soil temperatures, in order to directly deduce the model. The performance of the improved model was finally evaluated on the simulated and observed canopy cover, biomass, and yield using root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). The results showed that there was a significant correlation between the 20 cm soil and air temperature (P < 0.05) for the NM, PM, and BM treatments, with the determination coefficients (R²) ranging from 0.56 to 0.92. The mean slopes of the linear regression equations for the NM, PM, and BM were 0.77, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. Compared with the NM, the warming performance was more pronounced under PM, followed by BM. Moreover, the PM and BM treatments significantly increased to accumulate the surface soil temperature, particularly from the seedling stage to pre-tasseling. There was a significantly different soil-air temperature in this period. The substantial compensation was then obtained to calculate the growing degree days. The heat accumulation was accelerated to shorten the duration from seedling emergence to tasseling. In both PM and BM treatments, the temperature compensation coefficient from sowing to seedling emergence (1.23-1.76) was greater than that from seedling emergence to tasseling (0.50-0.67). Moreover, the overall temperature compensation increment from sowing to tasseling (0.70-1.54 °C) was intermediate between that from sowing to seedling emergence (1.12-5.12 °C) and from seedling emergence to tasseling (0.57-1.13 °C). According to the temperature compensation, the NRMSE of canopy cover, biomass, and yield for the PM and BM treatments over four growing seasons was reduced from 3.1%-15.7%, 11.0%-20.6%, and 10.9-20.9% in the original model to 1.7%-10.2%, 10.3%-18.1%, and 3.7%-20.1%, respectively, with the maximum NRMSE improvement of 16.5%, in order to effectively enhance the simulation accuracy of mulched maize growth. With the temperature source replacement, the simulated biomass and yield NRMSE for the PM and BM treatments were improved from 11.0%-20.6% and 10.9%-23.0% in the original model to 10.3%-18.1% and 1.4%-17.4%, respectively. Compared with the temperature compensation approach, the temperature source replacement further reduced the biomass RMSE and NRMSE by 0-0.6 t/hm2 and 0-4.1%, while the yield RMSE and NRMSE by 0-0.8 t/hm2 and 0-7.9%, respectively. The accuracy of the AquaCrop model was enhanced to simulate the growth and development of the mulched maize, indicating more precise predictions of the growth dynamics. Both approaches were significantly improved to simulate the dynamic variations in the biomass and yield. The better performance was confirmed to incorporate the mulching-induced warming. The applicability of the model was extended to mulched agriculture in arid regions. The finding can also provide a reliable quantitative tool to evaluate the different mulching patterns and practices.

       

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