基于PLUS模型与自动化权衡三维管控的城乡融合区土地利用多目标优化

    Multi-objective optimization of land use in urban-rural integration zones based on the PLUS model and automated trade-off three-dimensional control

    • 摘要: 城乡融合发展是缓解生产-生态-生活空间冲突、优化国土空间资源配置的关键路径。该研究以重庆市城乡融合试验区为对象,基于PLUS模型对2030年自然发展(natural development scenario,NDS)、生态保护(ecological protection scenario,EPS)及耕地保护(farmland protection scenario,FPS)情景下的土地利用格局进行多情景模拟,结合空间叠加分析与Python驱动的多条件自动权衡框架,提出“生态安全底线+耕地保护红线+发展弹性区间”三维管控体系,系统协调生态-经济协同目标。结果表明:1)土地利用演变特征揭示了城镇化与生态保护对耕地资源的双重挤压效应,三情景下耕地缩减显著(NDS:22.57 km2,EPS:18.83 km2,FPS:10.42 km2),林地次之,建设用地扩张强度依次为NDS(30.7 km2)>EPS(19.7 km2)>FPS(17.42 km2);2)研究区内呈现出空间冲突异质性规律,通过107种斑块组合的冲突区提取,江津区(26687个斑块)与永川区(12100个斑块)冲突强度显著高于其他区域(潼南区3674个斑块),其分异性与自身发展定位与资源优势有关;3)多目标优化效能显著,集成斑块在耕地保护(较NDS提升106.57 km2)、建设用地有序调控(较NDS抑制112.16 km2)与生态功能维护(林地保留率提升2.6%)间实现均衡,验证了三维管控体系在国土空间规划中的科学性与可操作性。

       

      Abstract: Urban–rural integration has emerged as one of the most important strategies for coordinated regional development in recent years. The rational and scientific allocation of territorial spatial resources can be promoted to mitigate the spatial conflicts among production, living, and ecological functions. A case study was taken as the urban–rural integration pilot zone in Chongqing, China. A complex spatial landscape was shaped by rapid urbanization, ecological fragility, and the demand for sustainable agriculture. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was employed to explore future land use dynamics. Three representative scenarios of the land use evolution were constructed and simulated: The Natural Development Scenario (NDS), which followed historical trends; the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), which emphasized environmental preservation; and the Farmland Protection Scenario (FPS), which prioritized agricultural security. These patterns of project land use were simulated for the year 2030. A scientific basis was provided to evaluate the trade-offs among competing land demands. A three-dimensional framework of spatial regulation was developed after scenario simulations using spatial overlay analysis with a Python-based multi-condition automated trade-off algorithm. This framework consisted of three core control layers: the "Farmland Protection Red Line," which safeguarded the essential agricultural areas; the "Ecological Security Baseline," which preserved the vital ecological spaces; and the "Development Flexibility Zone," which accommodated the regional growth needs within defined boundaries. Together, these elements aimed to reconcile the tensions among ecological conservation, farmland preservation, and development flexibility. Three key findings emerged from the analysis. 1) Land Use Dynamics: All three scenarios revealed that the farmland was under dual pressure from both urban expansion and ecological protection. Significant farmland loss was observed in each case: 22.57 km2 under NDS, 18.83 km2 under EPS, and 10.42 km2 under FPS. Similarly, the forested areas shared the degradation under scenarios. Construction land expanded most notably under NDS (30.7 km2), followed by EPS (19.7 km2) and FPS (17.42 km2), indicating the varying impacts of policy priorities. 2) Spatial Conflict Patterns: 107 types of spatial conflict overlays were identified among land patches, indicating the pronounced regional heterogeneity. There were the high-conflict areas, such as Jiangjin District (26 687 conflict patches) and Yongchuan District (12 100 patches). In contrast, there were the sharply lower-conflict zones, like Tongnan District (3 674 patches). These patterns were closely aligned with the disparities in the local development strategies and resource endowments. 3) Integrated Regulation Effectiveness: The spatial regulation was offered a robust multi-objective optimization. Compared with NDS, there was a 106.57 km2 increase in the protected farmland, a 112.16 km2 reduction in construction land expansion, and a 2.6% improvement in forest retention. The framework shared a better-balanced growth with ecological and food security imperatives. The framework was empirically validated for the synergistic "quantity–quality–space" optimization in land use. A replicable model was provided for the territorial spatial planning in the transitional and rapidly urbanizing regions. Future work should focus on the ecological compensation, real-time data streams with simulation models, as well as the legal and institutional safeguards. Additionally, machine learning techniques were incorporated to improve the parameter calibration, thereby enhancing the framework’s adaptability against diverse regional contexts. This finding can thus offer valuable theoretical insights and practical strategies for the sustainable urban–rural transformation at multiple scales.

       

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