基于遥感反演与彭曼公式的作物需水量预测方法

    Predicting crop water requirements using remote sensing inversion and Penman-Monteith formula

    • 摘要: 针对传统的作物需水预测模型存在模型精度不高、运行效率低下和缺乏动态调整能力,该研究综合考虑参考作物蒸散量 \mathrmE\mathrmT_0 和作物系数Kc等影响需水预测的主要因素,提出了一种基于遥感反演与彭曼公式的作物需水量预测方法。该方法首先使用序列分解-线性回归模型(series decomposition and linear regression,SDLR)结合彭曼公式对未来1~7 d的 \mathrmE\mathrmT_0 进行预测,然后使用ArcGIS软件标注了灌区的农田边界,并在标注好的田块矢量边界上基于遥感反演模型(remote sensing inversion,RSI)实时反演未来1~7d的Kc,最后使用灌溉需水预测模型(irrigation water requirement assessment model,IWRA)整合未来1~7 d的 \mathrmE\mathrmT_0 与Kc,预测得到各田块的需水量,实现灌溉需水量的精确预测。结果表明:1)SDLR模型在未来1~7 d的 \mathrmE\mathrmT_0 预测中均方根误差为0.435~0.728 mm/d,平均绝对误差为0.303~0.526 mm/d, R^2 在0.821~0.942之间,均优于基线模型。2)与两个基线模型比较,SDLR模型参数量分别降低了90.7%和92%,推理时间分别降低了97.4%和98.5%。3)RSI模型反演的作物系数符合FAO作物系数变化规律,能够动态调整作物系数。4)在洋河二灌区2018年灌溉需水预测试验中,模型预测的灌溉需水量总体低于实际取水量8.17%,节省了农业灌溉用水。该研究为区域尺度农业水资源精准作物管理提供可推广的技术框架。

       

      Abstract: Water demand prediction is often required for high accuracy and operational efficiency. However, the conventional model is still lacking in the dynamic adjustment under various scenarios. Particularly, there are the ever-increasing challenges of water management in sustainable agriculture under increasingly variable and unpredictable climates. This research aims to systematically integrate the critical agrometeorological parameters, with particular emphasis on the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and dynamic crop coefficients (Kc). A crop water demand prediction was developed and then validated using remote sensing and the Penman formula, termed the Remote Sensing Inversion-Time Series Decomposition and Linear Regression-Irrigation Water Requirement Assessment Model (RSI-SDLR-IWRAM). The framework was then designed with both precision and practicality in mind. A structured multi-stage computational architecture was first employed using the advanced Sequence Decomposition-Linear Regression (SDLR) algorithm in conjunction with the physically-based and theoretically robust Penman-Monteith equation. The high-accuracy 1-7 day-ahead forecasts of the reference evapotranspiration were generated systematically. Subsequently, the geospatial processing was incorporated using the widely used ArcGIS platform. Agricultural field boundaries were precisely delineated and digitally characterized to obtain the vector-based parcel maps. The fundamental spatial units served as the geospatial foundation for the subsequent analysis. The Remote Sensing Inversion (RSI) component was dynamically derived from the near-real-time crop coefficient values using multi-temporal spectral imagery. Furthermore, the complex spatiotemporal variability of the crop growth was effectively captured and then quantified over the different agricultural field parcels. The IWRAM module was then integrated with these diverse meteorological and biophysical inputs using advanced data assimilation techniques. Field-specific irrigation water requirement was estimated to characterize the unprecedented levels of both spatial and temporal resolution. Validation experiments were conducted during multiple growing seasons. The results demonstrated that there was the superior performance of the integrated system: 1) The SDLR prediction module was consistently achieved in the remarkable accuracy over all forecasting horizons (1-7 days), with the root mean squared error metrics ranging between 0.435-0.782 mm/day, mean absolute errors within 0.303-0.526 mm/day bounds, and coefficient of determination values in the range of 0.821-0.942, all of which outperform the baseline models; 2) Computational efficiency analysis revealed that, compared with the two baseline models, theSDLR model reduces the number of parameters by 90.7% and 92%, and the inference timeby 97.4% and 98.5%, respectively. Thereby, the highly efficient deployment was realized near real-time operation in actual agricultural settings; 3) The RSI-based Kc estimation subsystem successfully reproduced the characteristic temporal trajectories, which were documented in the authoritative FAO-56 guidelines. While the dynamic adjustments were obtained under actual vegetation status using remote sensing platforms; 4) Most significantly, the full-scale implementation resulted in a substantial 8.17% reduction in the water consumption during the critical 2018 growing season in the Yanghe II irrigation district, compared with the conventional irrigation scheduling practices. There was a significant water conservation potential without any compromise in the crop productivity. Therefore, the framework can be expected to implement the precision water strategies at operational regional scales. Substantial improvements can be offered over existing approaches in terms of the prediction accuracy, operational efficiency, and adaptive capacity. Modular architecture can be suitable for the practical adaptability under the diverse agroecological contexts and farming systems. Essential computational tractability is also maintained for the large-area implementation. The timely advancement in the irrigation decision-support technologies can bridge the gap between theoretical modeling and practical water management applications.

       

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