基于无人机多光谱影像和机器学习的水稻产量与氮素利用率预测

    Prediction of rice yield and nitrogen use efficiency based on UAV multispectral imaging and machine learning

    • 摘要: 为了筛选对产量与氮素利用率(nitrogen use efficiency, NUE)敏感的遥感特征,构建准确的产量及NUE预测模型,该研究开展为期2 a的多氮素水平与多水稻品种田间试验,获取了3个关键生长阶段的无人机(unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV)多光谱影像,采用递归特征消除(recursive feature elimination, RFE)算法筛选敏感植被指数(vegetation indices, VIs)、纹理特征(texture features, TFs)和二者的混合特征,利用6种机器学习算法构建“敏感特征-产量和NUE”直接预测模型,并根据NUE属性提出一种“敏感特征-产量-NUE”间接预测模型,通过两种模型的对比验证了UAV在水稻NUE精确预测中的应用潜力。研究结果表明:(1)尽管对产量和NUE敏感的特征因生长阶段而异,但DVI(difference vegetation index)、VARI(visible atmospherically resistant indices)和mNDblue(modified normalized difference blue index )以及纹理均值(Mean)在多个生长阶段对产量敏感;repRVI(reciprocal ratio vegetation index)、相关性(correlation, Cor)和Mean在多个生长阶段对NUE敏感。(2)深度神经网络(deep neural network, DNN)模型对产量和NUE直接预测性能最佳。在灌浆期,基于TFs的产量预测精度最高(R2=0.94,RMSE=479.59 kg/hm2);在分蘖期,基于混合特征的NUE预测精度最佳,农学氮素利用率(agronomic nitrogen use efficiency, aNUE)和氮素偏生产力(nitrogen partial factor productivity, NPFP)的预测精度分别为R2=0.71,RMSE=4.45 kg/kg和R2=0.78,RMSE=12.79 kg/kg。(3)与直接预测模型相比,间接预测模型对NUE预测精度更高,对aNUE和NPFP的预测R2分别提高了18.59%和14.73%,RMSE分别降低了54.411%和90.015%。研究结果可为田块尺度下利用无人机遥感技术快速准确预测水稻产量和NUE提供新思路。

       

      Abstract: Rice is one of the most important staple crops worldwide. China is also the largest rice producer. Among them, nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient for rice growth; The rice yield and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) are the critical influencing factors to determine food security and agricultural sustainability. However, the excessive application of nitrogen fertilizer can reduce the NUE to increase production costs and then cause environmental pollution. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately predict the rice yield and NUE for optimal nitrogen management and high production efficiency, in order to mitigate the environmental impacts. Particularly, remote sensing can be expected for the application of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral imagery in recent years. The UAV remote sensing can also be combined with machine learning. The crop growth can be efficiently acquired to significantly enhance the precision management of agricultural production. This study aims to predict the rice yield and NUE using UAV multispectral imaging and machine learning. A two-year field experiment was conducted in Fengyang County, Anhui Province, China. Multiple nitrogen levels and rice varieties were selected in the field. UAV multispectral images were collected at three growth stages (tillering, heading, and grain filling). The recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm was used to select the sensitive vegetation indices (VIs), texture features (TFs), and their combined features. Six models of machine learning-random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), gradient boosting machine (GBM), deep neural network (DNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM)—were employed to establish the direct prediction models, according to the “sensitive remote sensing features–yield and NUE”. Additionally, an indirect prediction was proposed using calculated features. The NUE prediction was also evaluated after UAV remote sensing. A comparison was then made on the performance of direct and indirect models. The results showed that: (1) The prediction of rice yield and NUE at different growth stages exhibited varying dependencies on the remote sensing features. At the tillering stage, the spectral-based vegetation indices contributed more to the prediction accuracy. At the grain-filling stage, the texture features played a more significant role in the NUE prediction. Difference vegetation index (DVI), visible atmospherically resistant indices (VARI), and modified normalized difference blue index (mNDblue), as well as the texture mean (Mean), were sensitive to the yield across multiple growth stages. Similarly, the reciprocal ratio vegetation index (repRVI), correlation (Cor), and Mean were consistently sensitive to the NUE. (2) Among all models, the highest accuracy of deep neural network (DNN) was achieved in the direct predictions of yield and NUE. At the grain-filling stage, the TF-based model provided the most accurate predictions of yield (R2= 0.94, RMSE = 479.59 kg/hm2). At the tillering stage, the hybrid feature-based model demonstrated the best predictive performance for the NUE, with the agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (aNUE) and nitrogen partial factor productivity (NPFP) in the R2 values of 0.71 (RMSE = 4.45 kg/kg) and 0.78 (RMSE = 12.79 kg/kg), respectively. (3) Compared with the direct models, the indirect model has significantly improved the NUE prediction accuracy. The R2 values for aNUE and NPFP increased by 18.589% and 14.733%, respectively, while the RMSE values decreased by 54.41% and 90.02%, respectively. The framework of indirect prediction for the NUE was used to nondestructively and dynamically assess earlier growth stages. Traditional limitations were also avoided to reduce the data from the maturity stage. The UAV multispectral imagery with machine learning effectively enhanced the prediction accuracy of the rice yield and NUE. The indirect prediction also surpassed the direct approach. The DNN model also outperformed traditional machine learning in predictive accuracy. These findings can also provide valuable technical support and decision-making on the precision management of rice production in intelligent agriculture.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回