Abstract:
Abstract: China is a populous country that is facing serious aging problem due to the single-child birth policy. Same as urbanization, economic level, consumer preferences, and so on, the changes in population age structure would have a huge impact on food consumption. This paper used the household survey data conducted by the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) in 2012 to investigate the consumption status of Chinese residents of different ages. In CHNS, 23057 persons, 5928 households in 311 villages community, 11 provinces (province-level municipalities) were covered. This paper also predicted China's population size before 2030 based on the Life Cycle Theory. Then this paper studied the influences of population age structure change on the consumption of major food in China. The main results are as follows: 1) Food consumption of residents of different ages has the obvious stage traits, all of which can be roughly divided into 4 groups: inverse U-shaped curve (grain ration, aquatic products and Chinese spirits), U-shaped curve (milk), staged consumption characteristics (3 phases for red meat consumption, 2 phases for poultry), no-difference consumption characteristics (egg). 2) China's total population and the proportion of elderly citizens will continue to grow before 2030, and the growth rate of total population will slow down. In 2030, the total population of China will reach 1 466 millions, and the proportion of elderly citizens will reach 18.2%. The population age structure will exert significant impacts on the total food consumption in China. These impacts can be divided into 4 groups: positive impact (grain ration, aquatic products and Chinese spirits), negative impact (red meat and poultry), first negative impact and then positive impact (milk), no significant effect (egg). 3) In terms of the degree of influence, the effects of the population age structure change on total food consumption can be also divided into 4 types. The population age structure change will increase total consumption of grain ration, aquatic products and Chinese spirits. The growth rate of consumption of grain ration and aquatic products will slow down gradually, and the growth rate of consumption of Chinese spirits will first rise and then decrease. The population age structure change will exert the increasing negative impacts on total consumption of red meat and poultry, and the impacts are going to get higher. Till 2030, total consumption of red meat and poultry in China will reduce by 4.9% and 11.2% respectively. The impact of the population age structure change on total consumption of milk changes from ?1.4% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2030. And the population age structure change has little effect on egg consumption. So it is concluded that the population age structure change slows down meat consumption and total grain demand in China. Now, the focus of China's food security should be changed from ensuring quantity security of grain to ensuring nutritional safety of residents. The future policies should pay attention to the differences of consumption characteristics of people of different ages. For example, citizens of China consume most poultry at the age of 20, most red meat at the age of 30, and consume most grain ration, aquatic products, Chinese spirits at the age of 47-53. As the most convenient and reliable source of protein, the consumption quantity of eggs at different ages is roughly the same.