不同气候模式对密云水库流域非点源污染负荷的影响

    Impact of different climate change scenarios on non-point source pollution losses in Miyun Reservoir watershed

    • 摘要: 以密云水库流域内4个气象站1961?2000年40 a的气象特征分析结果为基础,采用统计分析和线性回归的方法,预测流域气候变化趋势,采用任意情景设置法设定25种气候情景(5种温度变化和5种降雨变化的组合情景)和3个水文情景年(丰、平、枯水年)。利用HSPF(hydrologic simulation program-fortran)模型模拟密云水库流域不同气候变化情景下径流量和非点源污染物负荷量的变化情况。结果表明:1)增加20%降雨,能增加73.4%的径流量,而减少20%降雨会减少56.3%的径流,而气温变化对径流和水质负荷影响不是很明显;2)总氮和总磷负荷随径流增加而增大,总磷负荷对径流变化更加敏感,降雨增加20%,总氮和总磷负荷分别增加约70.8%和78.3%;而减少20%降雨,会使得总氮和总磷负荷分别减少约55.3%和57.2%;3)从水文年对比来看,潮河流域丰水年径流量是枯水年的3.1倍,总氮、总磷负荷则分别是枯水年的2.9倍、3.5倍,白河流域丰水年径流量是枯水年的4.6倍,总氮、总磷负荷则分别是枯水年的5.6倍、8.5倍,且年内非点源污染负荷主要集中在汛期,高风险区主要分布在怀柔区、延庆县、滦平县以及密云县,需要对其采取对应的措施来控制非点源污染的影响。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Changes in climate pattern and/or land cover may alter hydrologic processes, in turn leading to changes in water quality and quantity that may be detrimental to the environment. Climate change may result in increasing variability of extreme precipitation and other hydrologic extremes, leading to greater and more frequent pulses of contaminants being introduced into receiving waters. Analysis and study of the response of hydrology and water resources to climate change have a very important practical and theoretical significance to understand the influence to water resources' development and utilization, planning and management, ecological balance and environmental protection. Miyun Reservoir is the unique surface water source in Beijing. Non-point source pollution, especially agricultural non-point source pollution has now become the main factor influencing the water quality of the Miyun Reservoir. Therefore, the study of the climate characteristics of the Miyun Reservoir basin and discussing changes of the watershed's non-point source pollution load under the influence of climate change, have a very great practical significance to the formulation of policy on water resources protection. A statistical method was employed to analyze the variation tendency of temperature and precipitation based on the meteorological data (during the years from 1961 to 2000) collected from 4 weather stations within the Miyun Reservoir watershed (northeast of Beijing). And then 25 scenarios of temperature and precipitation were generated by a situational method. The hydrological model HSPF (hydrologic simulation program-fortran) was applied to assess the impact of the climate change on the stream flow and nutrient losses of the catchment under different climate change scenarios. The main results showed that: 1) the influence of change in precipitation on runoff was greater than the temperature; if precipitation increased by 20%, it would lead to an increase of 73.37% for the runoff, and on the contrary, if precipitation decreased by 20%, it would result in an decrease of 56.34% for the runoff; 2) there was a positive relationship between the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load and the runoff change. When the precipitation increased by 20%, the TN and TP load could potentially increase by 70.8% and 78.3% respectively; and if the precipitation decreased by 20%, the TN and TP load would decrease by 55.3% and 57.2% respectively; 3) For the Chao River watershed, the runoff in wet season was 3.1 times that in dry season, and similarly, the TN and TP load in wet season were 2.9 and 3.5 times those in dry season; for the Bai River watershed, the runoff produced in wet season was 4.6 times that in dry season, and the TN and TP load generated in wet season were 5.6 and 8.5 times those in dry season. The high-risk areas were mainly concentrated in Chao River watershed and the most of the CSAs were close rivers. There was significant discrepancy of the distribution between TN and TP load in this area. Due to the high population density together with crop planting, livestock and surface mining being main industries, Huairou, Yanqing, Luanping and Miyun County had higher loads than other areas, and the non-point source pollution should be controlled using essential measures.

       

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